USA · Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC

Kick-off 00:30 · Thu, Oct 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

New York City FC 60.2% Draw 19.1% Atlanta United FC 20.7%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 79.3% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 20.7% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atlanta United FC: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

79.3%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

20.7%

Only the uncovered result loses

New York City FC

W L D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Atlanta United FC

W D L L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York City FC win60.2%

Draw19.1%

Atlanta United FC win20.7%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals80.3%

Over 3.5 goals62.4%

Both teams to score75.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.3%

Home or Draw (1X)78.4%

Both Halves Over 0.577.6%

Goal in Both Halves77.6%

Draw No Bet - Home73.9%

Home Win60.8%

Draw or Away (X2)39.0%

Draw No Bet - Away26.1%

Away Win21.4%

Draw17.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.7%

Over 3.5 Goals62.2%

4+ Goals62.2%

Under 4.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals42.9%

Under 3.5 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals37.2%

1-3 Goals36.2%

2-3 Goals30.4%

Over 5.5 Goals26.3%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals12.5%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.1%

Away Team to Score79.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.6%

Home Clean Sheet20.1%

Home Win to Nil18.7%

Away Clean Sheet6.7%

Away Win to Nil5.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.1%

Away Over 0.579.7%

Home Over 1.575.0%

Home Over 2.550.6%

Home 3+ Goals50.6%

Away Over 1.547.5%

Away Exactly 132.2%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Home Exactly 224.5%

Away Over 2.521.7%

Away 3+ Goals21.7%

Away Exactly 020.1%

Home Exactly 118.1%

Home Exactly 06.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.8%

Home to win by 3+23.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 119.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.8%

Away to win by 111.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 26.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.6%

Away to win by 3+3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.6%

Home & Over 2.552.3%

Home & BTTS42.1%

Home & No BTTS18.7%

Away & Over 2.517.6%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

Away & BTTS16.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Draw & Under 2.57.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & No BTTS5.3%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.6%

HT Over 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Home Win47.9%

HT Under 1.542.3%

HT/FT Home/Home40.9%

HT Both Teams Score36.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.1%

HT Away Win22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Under 0.514.4%

HT/FT Away/Away12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners93.0%

Under 10.5 Corners87.6%

Under 9.5 Corners79.5%

Under 8.5 Corners68.5%

Home Most Corners61.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners43.6%

Over 8.5 Corners31.5%

Away Most Corners24.7%

Over 9.5 Corners20.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners18.5%

Over 10.5 Corners12.4%

Over 11.5 Corners7.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards86.1%

Over 3.5 Cards71.1%

Under 5.5 Cards64.5%

Over 4.5 Cards53.0%

Under 4.5 Cards47.0%

Over 5.5 Cards35.5%

Under 3.5 Cards28.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards19.3%

Under 2.5 Cards13.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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