USA · Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

New York City FC 61.3% Draw 21.2% Los Angeles FC 17.5%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 82.5% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 17.5% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Los Angeles FC: 6 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

82.5%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

17.5%

Only the uncovered result loses

New York City FC

W L D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Los Angeles FC

W D L L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York City FC win61.3%

Draw21.2%

Los Angeles FC win17.5%

Over 1.5 goals87.7%

Over 2.5 goals68.2%

Over 3.5 goals46.7%

Both teams to score64.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.1%

Home Over 0.5

90.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.4%

Home or Away (12)80.9%

Draw No Bet - Home77.0%

Both Halves Over 0.568.0%

Goal in Both Halves68.0%

Home Win62.3%

Draw or Away (X2)37.6%

Draw No Bet - Away23.0%

Draw19.1%

Away Win18.6%

Exactly 1 Goal10.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals86.5%

Under 5.5 Goals85.6%

Under 4.5 Goals72.3%

Over 2.5 Goals68.2%

2-4 Goals58.8%

Under 3.5 Goals53.3%

1-3 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.7%

4+ Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals31.8%

1-2 Goals28.8%

Over 4.5 Goals27.7%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Exactly 2 Goals18.4%

Over 5.5 Goals14.4%

Under 1.5 Goals13.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.1%

Away Team to Score69.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.0%

Home Clean Sheet30.1%

Home Win to Nil27.1%

Away Clean Sheet9.8%

Away Win to Nil6.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.1%

Away Over 0.569.8%

Home Over 1.567.3%

Home Over 2.540.8%

Home 3+ Goals40.8%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.533.7%

Away Exactly 030.1%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Exactly 122.8%

Away Exactly 221.7%

Away Over 2.512.0%

Away 3+ Goals12.0%

Home Exactly 09.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.1%

Home to win by 122.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.8%

Home to win by 3+21.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 218.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.4%

Away to win by 111.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 24.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.2%

Away to win by 3+2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.554.7%

Home & Over 2.547.5%

Home & BTTS35.2%

Home & No BTTS27.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.5%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Home & Under 2.514.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

Away & Over 2.512.9%

Away & BTTS11.7%

Draw & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Away & No BTTS6.9%

Away & Under 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.5%

HT Under 1.553.0%

HT Home Win47.3%

HT Over 1.547.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

HT/FT Home/Home41.2%

HT Draw33.8%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score27.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.9%

HT Under 0.520.5%

HT Away Win18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT/FT Away/Away10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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