USA · Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Nashville SC

Kick-off 00:30 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

New York City FC 43.2% Draw 23.8% Nashville SC 33.0%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Nashville SC: 6 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

New York City FC

D D L L D W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Nashville SC

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

New York City FC 0wins ·0 draws ·Nashville SC 1wins

New York City FC 1-2 Nashville SCMay 24, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York City FC win43.2%

Draw23.8%

Nashville SC win33.0%

Over 1.5 goals89.2%

Over 2.5 goals70.9%

Over 3.5 goals49.9%

Both teams to score71.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.6%

Over 1.5 Goals

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.4%

Both Halves Over 0.570.0%

Goal in Both Halves70.0%

Home or Draw (1X)65.8%

Draw No Bet - Home56.5%

Draw or Away (X2)55.7%

Home Win44.3%

Draw No Bet - Away43.5%

Away Win34.1%

Draw21.6%

Exactly 1 Goal9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.0%

Under 5.5 Goals83.5%

Over 2.5 Goals70.9%

Under 4.5 Goals69.4%

2-4 Goals57.4%

Under 3.5 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 3.5 Goals49.9%

4+ Goals49.9%

1-3 Goals47.6%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.2%

Over 4.5 Goals30.6%

Under 2.5 Goals29.1%

1-2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals12.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.9%

Away Team to Score81.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.7%

Home Clean Sheet18.1%

Home Win to Nil15.6%

Away Clean Sheet14.1%

Away Win to Nil11.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.9%

Away Over 0.581.8%

Home Over 1.558.3%

Away Over 1.550.9%

Home Over 2.531.2%

Home 3+ Goals31.2%

Away Exactly 131.0%

Home Exactly 127.6%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 2.524.5%

Away 3+ Goals24.5%

Away Exactly 018.1%

Home Exactly 014.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.6%

Home to win by 119.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.1%

Away to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.4%

Home to win by 3+11.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 210.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 3+7.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.8%

Home & Over 2.534.4%

Home & BTTS28.7%

Away & Over 2.526.1%

Away & BTTS22.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.6%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Home & No BTTS15.6%

Away & No BTTS11.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.59.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Away & Under 2.58.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.8%

HT Under 1.550.9%

HT Over 1.549.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Home Win35.9%

HT Draw34.6%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.4%

HT Away Win29.5%

HT/FT Home/Home27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT/FT Away/Away20.5%

HT Under 0.519.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners98.6%

Under 10.5 Corners96.8%

Under 9.5 Corners93.5%

Under 8.5 Corners87.6%

Away Most Corners47.6%

Home Most Corners35.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners19.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners13.2%

Over 8.5 Corners12.4%

Over 9.5 Corners6.5%

Over 10.5 Corners3.2%

Over 11.5 Corners1.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.0%

Under 5.5 Cards76.5%

Under 4.5 Cards60.4%

Over 3.5 Cards59.1%

Under 3.5 Cards40.9%

Over 4.5 Cards39.6%

Over 5.5 Cards23.5%

Under 2.5 Cards22.0%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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