USA · Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls

Kick-off 00:30 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

New York City FC 54.4% Draw 21.5% New York Red Bulls 24.1%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 75.9% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 24.1% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to New York City FC: 6 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

75.9%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

24.1%

Only the uncovered result loses

New York City FC

W L D D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

New York Red Bulls

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 1

New York City FC 0wins ·1 draws ·New York Red Bulls 0wins

New York City FC 1-1 New York Red BullsMay 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York City FC win54.4%

Draw21.5%

New York Red Bulls win24.1%

Over 1.5 goals91.1%

Over 2.5 goals74.8%

Over 3.5 goals54.8%

Both teams to score72.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.6%

Home Team to Score

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Home or Draw (1X)74.9%

Both Halves Over 0.573.1%

Goal in Both Halves73.1%

Draw No Bet - Home68.9%

Home Win55.3%

Draw or Away (X2)44.6%

Draw No Bet - Away31.1%

Away Win25.0%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals90.1%

Under 5.5 Goals80.0%

Over 2.5 Goals74.7%

Under 4.5 Goals64.8%

2-4 Goals54.8%

Over 3.5 Goals54.7%

4+ Goals54.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals45.3%

1-3 Goals43.2%

3-4 Goals39.5%

2-3 Goals35.3%

Over 4.5 Goals35.2%

Under 2.5 Goals25.3%

1-2 Goals23.2%

Over 5.5 Goals20.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.0%

Exactly 2 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.4%

Away Team to Score78.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.7%

Home Clean Sheet21.1%

Home Win to Nil19.1%

Away Clean Sheet9.5%

Away Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.4%

Away Over 0.578.8%

Home Over 1.568.0%

Away Over 1.546.0%

Home Over 2.541.7%

Home 3+ Goals41.7%

Away Exactly 132.8%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 122.4%

Away Exactly 021.1%

Away Over 2.520.5%

Away 3+ Goals20.5%

Home Exactly 09.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.6%

Home to win by 120.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.5%

Home to win by 3+18.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 113.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 27.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.3%

Away to win by 3+4.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.0%

Home & Over 2.545.1%

Home & BTTS36.3%

Away & Over 2.519.5%

Home & No BTTS19.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.9%

Away & BTTS17.5%

Draw & BTTS17.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Home & Under 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.510.2%

Draw & Under 2.59.4%

Away & No BTTS7.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.4%

Away & Under 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.8%

HT Over 1.552.5%

HT Under 1.547.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

HT Home Win43.5%

HT/FT Home/Home36.1%

HT Both Teams Score32.9%

HT Draw32.6%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Away Win23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT Under 0.517.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT/FT Away/Away14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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