USA · Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

Kick-off 23:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

New York City FC 80.2% Draw 10.5% Philadelphia Union 9.3%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.1%

Exact-score model probability

New York City FC

D W W L D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Philadelphia Union

W W W L D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York City FC win80.2%

Draw10.5%

Philadelphia Union win9.3%

Over 1.5 goals98.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.2%

Over 3.5 goals83.5%

Both teams to score79.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 11.5 Corners

91.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.4%

Home Over 1.5

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home89.4%

Both Halves Over 0.589.4%

Goal in Both Halves89.4%

Home or Draw (1X)87.7%

Home or Away (12)87.3%

Home Win78.0%

Draw or Away (X2)19.0%

Draw No Bet - Away10.6%

Draw9.7%

Away Win9.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.7%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals90.4%

Over 3.5 Goals81.0%

4+ Goals81.0%

Over 4.5 Goals67.2%

Over 5.5 Goals50.9%

Under 5.5 Goals49.1%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Total Goals Even48.5%

Under 4.5 Goals32.8%

2-4 Goals27.9%

3-4 Goals23.2%

Under 3.5 Goals19.0%

1-3 Goals15.7%

2-3 Goals14.1%

Under 2.5 Goals9.6%

Exactly 3 Goals9.4%

1-2 Goals6.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 2 Goals4.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score78.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.8%

Home Clean Sheet18.6%

Home Win to Nil18.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.4%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.589.5%

Away Over 0.578.4%

Home Over 2.576.7%

Home 3+ Goals76.7%

Away Over 1.547.6%

Away Exactly 130.7%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Over 2.522.3%

Away 3+ Goals22.3%

Away Exactly 018.6%

Home Exactly 212.8%

Home Exactly 16.0%

Home Exactly 01.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away78.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away65.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away49.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.4%

Home to win by 3+47.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home31.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.5%

Away to win by 22.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.3%

Home & Over 2.574.4%

Home & BTTS59.7%

Home & No BTTS18.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS9.4%

Away & Over 2.58.5%

Away & BTTS8.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.0%

HT Over 1.574.3%

HT Home Win65.1%

HT/FT Home/Home60.8%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT Both Teams Score44.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.7%

HT Draw21.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT Away Win13.7%

HT Under 0.57.0%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Away5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners91.1%

Away Most Corners85.1%

Under 10.5 Corners84.8%

Under 9.5 Corners75.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners64.2%

Under 8.5 Corners63.9%

Over 8.5 Corners36.1%

Over 9.5 Corners24.3%

Over 10.5 Corners15.2%

Over 11.5 Corners8.9%

Home Most Corners7.7%

Home Over 4.5 Corners6.9%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.5%

Under 5.5 Cards75.9%

Over 3.5 Cards59.8%

Under 4.5 Cards59.6%

Over 4.5 Cards40.4%

Under 3.5 Cards40.2%

Over 5.5 Cards24.1%

Under 2.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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