USA · Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Toronto FC

Kick-off 00:30 · Sat, Aug 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home Win

85% confidence

New York City FC 85.0% Draw 10.0% Toronto FC 5.0%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Form gap

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Attacking threat

80%

Home Clean Sheet

Defensive strength

70%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

New York City FC has a significant form gap over Toronto FC. With players like Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos, they have an attacking threat. Toronto FC's injury crisis, including Matheus Pereira, affects their chances. New York City FC's home advantage is a key factor.

💡

Top Tip

New York City FC is likely to win at home

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 95% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 5.0% on the only losing outcome.

Form gap

Recent form leans to New York City FC: 13 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home Win

1X · Home or Draw

95%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

Only the uncovered result loses

New York City FC

W W L D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Toronto FC

L D D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

🏥 New York City FC unavailable

A. O'Neill · Ankle Injury

Raul Gustavo · Leg Injury

K. Parks · Groin Injury

M. Moralez · Knee Injury

🏥 Toronto FC unavailable

Matheus Pereira · Groin Injury

N. Palacio · Lower-Body Injury

N. Gomis · Thigh Injury

L. Stefanovic · Foot Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York City FC win85.0%

Draw10.0%

Toronto FC win5.0%

Over 1.5 goals90.4%

Over 2.5 goals74.6%

Over 3.5 goals53.9%

Both teams to score49.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

89.4%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

85.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.4%

Draw No Bet - Home94.3%

Home or Away (12)89.4%

Home Win84.4%

Both Halves Over 0.572.7%

Goal in Both Halves72.7%

Draw or Away (X2)15.1%

Draw10.0%

Exactly 1 Goal8.0%

Draw No Bet - Away5.7%

Away Win5.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals89.3%

Under 5.5 Goals81.0%

Over 2.5 Goals73.7%

Under 4.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals55.2%

Over 3.5 Goals53.6%

4+ Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals46.4%

1-3 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals39.6%

2-3 Goals35.7%

Over 4.5 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals26.3%

1-2 Goals23.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.1%

Over 5.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals15.6%

Under 1.5 Goals10.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.9%

Away Team to Score50.2%

Home Clean Sheet49.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.1%

Home Win to Nil47.2%

Away Clean Sheet4.2%

Away Win to Nil2.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 1.582.0%

Home Over 2.560.9%

Home 3+ Goals60.9%

Away Over 0.550.2%

Away Exactly 049.2%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 221.1%

Away Over 1.515.6%

Home Exactly 113.3%

Away Exactly 212.2%

Home Exactly 04.2%

Away Over 2.53.4%

Away 3+ Goals3.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home67.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.4%

Home to win by 3+46.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away15.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 13.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.0%

Away to win by 21.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.567.3%

Home & No BTTS47.2%

BTTS & Over 2.543.5%

Home & BTTS37.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.1%

Home & Under 2.517.0%

Draw & BTTS7.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Away & Over 2.53.1%

Away & BTTS3.0%

Away & No BTTS2.1%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.5%

HT Home Win65.7%

HT/FT Home/Home63.0%

HT Over 1.552.0%

HT Under 1.548.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.2%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw26.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.7%

HT Both Teams Score20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.7%

HT Under 0.517.5%

HT Away Win8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

New York City FC

A. O'Neill Ankle Injury

Raul Gustavo Leg Injury

K. Parks Groin Injury

M. Moralez Knee Injury

A. Martinez Knee Injury

K. O'Toole Leg Injury

K. Trewin Ankle Injury

D. Baiera Knee Injury

Toronto FC

Matheus Pereira Groin Injury

N. Palacio Lower-Body Injury

N. Gomis Thigh Injury

L. Stefanovic Foot Injury

M. Cimermancic Thigh Injury

R. Chukwu Muscle Injury

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

New York City FC win45%

Draw45%

Toronto FC win10%

AdviceDouble chance : New York City FC or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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