USA · Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

New York Red Bulls 38.8% Draw 23.1% Chicago Fire 38.1%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chicago Fire: 7 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

New York Red Bulls

L W L L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Chicago Fire

W W W L L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 1

New York Red Bulls 1wins ·0 draws ·Chicago Fire 0wins

New York Red Bulls 3-1 Chicago FireMay 9, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York Red Bulls win38.8%

Draw23.1%

Chicago Fire win38.1%

Over 1.5 goals90.9%

Over 2.5 goals74.4%

Over 3.5 goals54.2%

Both teams to score74.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.572.8%

Goal in Both Halves72.8%

Home or Draw (1X)60.8%

Draw or Away (X2)60.2%

Draw No Bet - Home50.4%

Draw No Bet - Away49.6%

Home Win39.7%

Away Win39.2%

Draw21.1%

Exactly 1 Goal8.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals89.9%

Under 5.5 Goals80.4%

Over 2.5 Goals74.3%

Under 4.5 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals55.2%

Over 3.5 Goals54.2%

4+ Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals45.8%

1-3 Goals43.7%

3-4 Goals39.6%

2-3 Goals35.7%

Over 4.5 Goals34.7%

Under 2.5 Goals25.7%

1-2 Goals23.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.1%

Over 5.5 Goals19.6%

Exactly 2 Goals15.6%

Under 1.5 Goals10.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.7%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.7%

Home Clean Sheet14.5%

Away Clean Sheet14.3%

Home Win to Nil12.4%

Away Win to Nil12.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.7%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 1.557.9%

Away Over 1.557.5%

Home Over 2.530.9%

Home 3+ Goals30.9%

Away Over 2.530.5%

Away 3+ Goals30.5%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Home Exactly 127.8%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 014.5%

Home Exactly 014.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)39.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 211.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 211.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.8%

Home to win by 3+9.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.5%

Away to win by 3+9.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.5%

Home & Over 2.531.8%

Away & Over 2.531.3%

Home & BTTS27.3%

Away & BTTS27.0%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.9%

Home & No BTTS12.4%

Away & No BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

Draw & Under 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.5%

HT Over 1.552.1%

HT Under 1.547.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.2%

HT Both Teams Score33.9%

HT Draw33.5%

HT Home Win33.4%

HT Away Win33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT/FT Home/Home24.5%

HT/FT Away/Away24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.7%

HT Under 0.517.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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