USA · Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

New York Red Bulls 43.1% Draw 19.6% Philadelphia Union 37.3%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Philadelphia Union: 7 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

New York Red Bulls

L W L L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Philadelphia Union

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 1

New York Red Bulls 0wins ·0 draws ·Philadelphia Union 1wins

New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York Red Bulls win43.1%

Draw19.6%

Philadelphia Union win37.3%

Over 1.5 goals96.4%

Over 2.5 goals87.1%

Over 3.5 goals72.8%

Both teams to score84.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

90.7%

Away Over 0.5

90.7%

HT Over 0.5

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.4%

Goal in Both Halves83.4%

Home or Away (12)81.4%

Home or Draw (1X)62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)56.2%

Draw No Bet - Home53.5%

Draw No Bet - Away46.5%

Home Win43.6%

Away Win37.8%

Draw18.4%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.6%

Over 2.5 Goals86.9%

Over 3.5 Goals72.6%

4+ Goals72.6%

Under 5.5 Goals62.6%

Over 4.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals45.1%

2-4 Goals40.6%

Over 5.5 Goals37.4%

3-4 Goals32.0%

Under 3.5 Goals27.4%

1-3 Goals26.4%

2-3 Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals14.3%

Under 2.5 Goals13.1%

1-2 Goals12.1%

Exactly 2 Goals8.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.1%

Away Team to Score90.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.3%

Home Clean Sheet9.1%

Home Win to Nil8.4%

Away Clean Sheet7.7%

Away Win to Nil7.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.1%

Away Over 0.590.7%

Home Over 1.572.3%

Away Over 1.568.8%

Home Over 2.547.0%

Home 3+ Goals47.0%

Away Over 2.542.7%

Away 3+ Goals42.7%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Away Exactly 121.8%

Home Exactly 119.8%

Away Exactly 09.1%

Home Exactly 07.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 115.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.0%

Home to win by 3+14.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 212.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.0%

Away to win by 211.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.9%

Away to win by 3+10.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.3%

Home & Over 2.539.5%

Home & BTTS35.2%

Away & Over 2.534.1%

Away & BTTS30.8%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Over 2.513.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Home & No BTTS8.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.6%

Away & No BTTS7.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Away & Under 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.2%

HT Over 1.565.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score45.1%

HT Home Win37.4%

HT Under 1.534.7%

HT Away Win33.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw28.9%

HT/FT Home/Home27.9%

HT/FT Away/Away23.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT Under 0.510.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions