USA · Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

New York Red Bulls 64.4% Draw 18.0% Toronto FC 17.6%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 82.4% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 17.6% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toronto FC: 4 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

82.4%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

17.6%

Only the uncovered result loses

New York Red Bulls

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Toronto FC

L L L W D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:14 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

New York Red Bulls win64.4%

Draw18.0%

Toronto FC win17.6%

Over 1.5 goals93.7%

Over 2.5 goals80.5%

Over 3.5 goals62.6%

Both teams to score73.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Home or Draw (1X)81.5%

Draw No Bet - Home78.1%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Home Win65.0%

Draw or Away (X2)34.7%

Draw No Bet - Away21.9%

Away Win18.2%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals80.3%

Under 5.5 Goals73.5%

Over 3.5 Goals62.5%

4+ Goals62.5%

Under 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.5%

Over 4.5 Goals43.2%

Under 3.5 Goals37.5%

3-4 Goals37.1%

1-3 Goals35.9%

2-3 Goals30.2%

Over 5.5 Goals26.5%

Under 2.5 Goals19.7%

1-2 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.8%

Exactly 2 Goals12.4%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.8%

Away Team to Score77.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.2%

Home Clean Sheet22.3%

Home Win to Nil21.0%

Away Clean Sheet5.9%

Away Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.8%

Away Over 0.577.4%

Home Over 1.577.1%

Home Over 2.553.5%

Home 3+ Goals53.5%

Away Over 1.544.0%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 022.3%

Away Over 2.519.0%

Away 3+ Goals19.0%

Home Exactly 116.7%

Home Exactly 05.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.2%

Home to win by 3+27.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.4%

Away to win by 110.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 25.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.2%

Home & Over 2.556.0%

Home & BTTS44.0%

Home & No BTTS21.0%

Draw & BTTS15.2%

Away & Over 2.514.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.8%

Away & BTTS13.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.6%

Home & Under 2.59.0%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS4.6%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.7%

HT Over 1.557.9%

HT Home Win50.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT/FT Home/Home44.5%

HT Under 1.542.1%

HT Both Teams Score35.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.4%

HT Away Win19.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Under 0.514.3%

HT/FT Away/Away10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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