England · Premier League

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Newcastle 47.5% Draw 25.4% Aston Villa 27.2%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 93%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Aston Villa: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Newcastle

L W L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Aston Villa

W D W L W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Newcastle 2wins ·1 draws ·Aston Villa 2wins

Newcastle 0-2 Aston VillaJan 25, 2026

Newcastle 0-0 Aston VillaAug 16, 2025

Newcastle 1-4 Aston VillaApr 19, 2025

Newcastle 3-0 Aston VillaDec 26, 2024

Newcastle 3-1 Aston VillaJan 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Newcastle win47.5%

Draw25.4%

Aston Villa win27.2%

Over 1.5 goals83.1%

Over 2.5 goals96.4%

Over 3.5 goals38.2%

Both teams to score93.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.9%

Away Team to Score

91.7%

Away Over 0.5

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.6%

Goal in Both Halves87.6%

Home or Away (12)82.5%

Home or Draw (1X)66.0%

Draw No Bet - Home59.4%

Draw or Away (X2)50.5%

Home Win49.0%

Draw No Bet - Away40.6%

Away Win33.5%

Draw17.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals91.1%

Over 3.5 Goals80.1%

4+ Goals80.1%

Over 4.5 Goals64.8%

Under 5.5 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals35.2%

2-4 Goals32.1%

3-4 Goals26.2%

Under 3.5 Goals19.9%

1-3 Goals19.0%

2-3 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals11.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.9%

1-2 Goals8.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.9%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.6%

Away Team to Score91.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.8%

Home Clean Sheet7.8%

Home Win to Nil7.4%

Away Clean Sheet4.8%

Away Win to Nil4.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.6%

Away Over 0.591.7%

Home Over 1.580.0%

Away Over 1.571.8%

Home Over 2.557.8%

Home 3+ Goals57.8%

Away Over 2.546.5%

Away 3+ Goals46.5%

Away Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 222.2%

Away Exactly 119.9%

Home Exactly 114.7%

Away Exactly 07.8%

Home Exactly 04.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)66.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home66.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.6%

Home to win by 3+18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.1%

Away to win by 114.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 213.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.7%

Away to win by 3+9.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 29.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.3%

Home & Over 2.546.1%

Home & BTTS41.5%

Away & Over 2.531.3%

Away & BTTS29.0%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Draw & Over 2.513.7%

Home & No BTTS7.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & No BTTS4.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.3%

Home & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.9%

HT Over 1.571.4%

HT Both Teams Score50.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Home Win41.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home32.4%

HT Away Win31.5%

HT Under 1.528.6%

HT Draw26.8%

HT/FT Away/Away21.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT Under 0.58.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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