England · Premier League

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Newcastle 48.0% Draw 25.8% Bournemouth 26.3%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

82%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Newcastle

W W D L W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Bournemouth

D L D D W W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Newcastle 0wins ·3 draws ·Bournemouth 2wins

Newcastle 1-2 BournemouthApr 18, 2026

Newcastle 0-0 BournemouthSep 21, 2025

Newcastle 1-4 BournemouthJan 18, 2025

Newcastle 1-1 BournemouthAug 25, 2024

Newcastle 2-2 BournemouthFeb 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Newcastle win48.0%

Draw25.8%

Bournemouth win26.3%

Over 1.5 goals80.4%

Over 2.5 goals84.8%

Over 3.5 goals34.2%

Both teams to score82.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.3%

Both Halves Over 0.574.1%

Goal in Both Halves74.1%

Draw or Away (X2)64.2%

Home or Draw (1X)56.4%

Draw No Bet - Away54.9%

Draw No Bet - Home45.1%

Away Win43.6%

Home Win35.8%

Draw20.6%

Exactly 1 Goal7.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals90.7%

Under 5.5 Goals78.7%

Over 2.5 Goals76.0%

Under 4.5 Goals63.1%

Over 3.5 Goals56.5%

4+ Goals56.5%

2-4 Goals53.8%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals43.5%

1-3 Goals41.6%

3-4 Goals39.1%

Over 4.5 Goals36.9%

2-3 Goals34.3%

Under 2.5 Goals24.0%

1-2 Goals22.1%

Over 5.5 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals19.6%

Exactly 2 Goals14.7%

Under 1.5 Goals9.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.7%

Home Team to Score84.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.5%

Away Clean Sheet15.0%

Away Win to Nil13.2%

Home Clean Sheet12.3%

Home Win to Nil10.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 0.584.9%

Away Over 1.561.9%

Home Over 1.556.4%

Away Over 2.534.9%

Away 3+ Goals34.9%

Home Over 2.529.5%

Home 3+ Goals29.5%

Home Exactly 128.5%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 125.7%

Home Exactly 015.0%

Away Exactly 012.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away64.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.7%

Away to win by 118.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 116.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 213.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.9%

Away to win by 3+11.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.6%

Home to win by 210.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.3%

Home to win by 3+8.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.2%

Away & Over 2.535.6%

Away & BTTS30.4%

Home & Over 2.528.9%

Home & BTTS25.3%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.6%

Away & No BTTS13.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.5%

Home & No BTTS10.4%

Draw & Under 2.59.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Away & Under 2.57.9%

BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.4%

HT Over 1.553.6%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.4%

HT Away Win36.1%

HT Both Teams Score35.1%

HT Draw32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Home Win31.1%

HT/FT Away/Away27.3%

HT/FT Home/Home21.8%

Equal Goals Each Half20.4%

HT Under 0.516.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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