England · Premier League

Newcastle vs Everton

Kick-off 21:00 · Mon, Nov 2

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Newcastle 49.3% Draw 27.1% Everton 23.6%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 9 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Newcastle 1 wins, 2 draws, Everton 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Newcastle

W L L W L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Everton

L L D W D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Newcastle 1wins ·2 draws ·Everton 2wins

Newcastle 2-3 EvertonFeb 28, 2026

Newcastle 4-1 EvertonNov 29, 2025

Newcastle 0-1 EvertonMay 25, 2025

Newcastle 0-0 EvertonOct 5, 2024

Newcastle 1-1 EvertonApr 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Newcastle win49.3%

Draw27.1%

Everton win23.6%

Over 1.5 goals74.8%

Over 2.5 goals74.2%

Over 3.5 goals27.0%

Both teams to score74.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.1%

Under 5.5 Goals

86.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.5%

Both Halves Over 0.567.0%

Goal in Both Halves67.0%

Draw or Away (X2)62.4%

Home or Draw (1X)60.0%

Draw No Bet - Away51.5%

Draw No Bet - Home48.5%

Away Win40.0%

Home Win37.6%

Draw22.5%

Exactly 1 Goal11.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Under 5.5 Goals86.5%

Over 1.5 Goals85.8%

Under 4.5 Goals73.6%

Over 2.5 Goals66.9%

2-4 Goals59.4%

Under 3.5 Goals54.8%

1-3 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals45.2%

4+ Goals45.2%

2-3 Goals40.7%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.1%

1-2 Goals29.9%

Over 4.5 Goals26.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.9%

Under 1.5 Goals14.2%

Over 5.5 Goals13.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.6%

Home Team to Score81.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.5%

Away Clean Sheet18.4%

Home Clean Sheet17.3%

Away Win to Nil15.2%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.6%

Home Over 0.581.6%

Away Over 1.552.3%

Home Over 1.550.5%

Home Exactly 131.1%

Away Exactly 130.4%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 2.525.6%

Away 3+ Goals25.6%

Home Over 2.524.1%

Home 3+ Goals24.1%

Home Exactly 018.4%

Away Exactly 017.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away62.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)37.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 211.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.9%

Away to win by 3+8.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.9%

Home to win by 3+7.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.0%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Home & Over 2.527.6%

Away & BTTS24.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.6%

Home & BTTS23.4%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Away & No BTTS15.2%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

Away & Under 2.510.5%

Home & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

BTTS & Under 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.8%

HT Under 1.554.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.0%

HT Over 1.545.9%

HT Draw36.0%

HT Away Win32.8%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Home Win31.2%

HT Both Teams Score29.1%

HT/FT Away/Away24.3%

HT/FT Home/Home22.7%

Equal Goals Each Half22.2%

HT Under 0.521.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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