England · Premier League

Newcastle vs Hull City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Newcastle 47.7% Draw 29.4% Hull City 22.9%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.6%

Exact-score model probability

Newcastle

L W D W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Hull City

D L D W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Newcastle win47.7%

Draw29.4%

Hull City win22.9%

Over 1.5 goals71.3%

Over 2.5 goals70.8%

Over 3.5 goals22.7%

Both teams to score71.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.2%

Both Halves Over 0.570.0%

Goal in Both Halves70.0%

Home or Draw (1X)61.6%

Draw or Away (X2)60.1%

Draw No Bet - Home50.9%

Draw No Bet - Away49.1%

Home Win39.9%

Away Win38.4%

Draw21.7%

Exactly 1 Goal9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.0%

Under 5.5 Goals83.6%

Over 2.5 Goals70.8%

Under 4.5 Goals69.5%

2-4 Goals57.5%

Under 3.5 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 3.5 Goals49.7%

4+ Goals49.7%

1-3 Goals47.7%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.3%

Over 4.5 Goals30.5%

Under 2.5 Goals29.2%

1-2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals16.4%

Under 1.5 Goals12.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.2%

Away Team to Score83.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.5%

Home Clean Sheet16.3%

Away Clean Sheet15.7%

Home Win to Nil13.8%

Away Win to Nil13.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.2%

Away Over 0.583.6%

Home Over 1.555.1%

Away Over 1.554.1%

Away Exactly 129.6%

Home Exactly 129.1%

Home Over 2.528.2%

Home 3+ Goals28.2%

Away Over 2.527.2%

Away 3+ Goals27.2%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 016.3%

Home Exactly 015.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 118.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.3%

Away to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.9%

Home to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.4%

Away to win by 211.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.3%

Home to win by 3+9.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.7%

Away to win by 3+8.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.9%

Home & Over 2.530.7%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Home & BTTS26.1%

Away & BTTS25.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.6%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Home & No BTTS13.8%

Away & No BTTS13.2%

Draw & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.510.5%

Home & Under 2.59.1%

Away & Under 2.58.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.7%

HT Under 1.551.0%

HT Over 1.549.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Draw34.7%

HT Home Win33.1%

HT Away Win32.2%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.5%

HT/FT Home/Home24.4%

HT/FT Away/Away23.4%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT Under 0.519.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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