England · Premier League

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Kick-off 16:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Newcastle 38.9% Draw 25.3% Liverpool 35.7%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Liverpool: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Newcastle

L W D W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Liverpool

D L D L W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Newcastle 0wins ·1 draws ·Liverpool 4wins

Newcastle 1-4 LiverpoolJan 31, 2026

Newcastle 2-3 LiverpoolAug 25, 2025

Newcastle 0-2 LiverpoolFeb 26, 2025

Newcastle 3-3 LiverpoolDec 4, 2024

Newcastle 2-4 LiverpoolJan 1, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Newcastle win38.9%

Draw25.3%

Liverpool win35.7%

Over 1.5 goals84.6%

Over 2.5 goals95.4%

Over 3.5 goals40.9%

Both teams to score87.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.6%

Goal in Both Halves88.6%

Home or Away (12)83.1%

Home or Draw (1X)70.7%

Draw No Bet - Home65.7%

Home Win54.6%

Draw or Away (X2)44.6%

Draw No Bet - Away34.3%

Away Win28.5%

Draw16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals97.1%

Over 2.5 Goals91.9%

Over 3.5 Goals81.9%

4+ Goals81.9%

Over 4.5 Goals67.4%

Over 5.5 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals49.2%

Under 4.5 Goals32.6%

2-4 Goals29.7%

3-4 Goals24.5%

Under 3.5 Goals18.1%

1-3 Goals17.0%

2-3 Goals15.2%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.1%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals2.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score90.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.6%

Home Clean Sheet8.5%

Home Win to Nil8.1%

Away Clean Sheet3.7%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Away Over 0.590.8%

Home Over 1.583.4%

Away Over 1.569.9%

Home Over 2.563.3%

Home 3+ Goals63.3%

Away Over 2.544.3%

Away 3+ Goals44.3%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Away Exactly 120.8%

Home Exactly 220.1%

Home Exactly 112.2%

Away Exactly 08.5%

Home Exactly 03.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.0%

Home to win by 3+23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 116.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 112.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.7%

Away to win by 3+7.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.8%

Home & Over 2.551.9%

Home & BTTS46.5%

Away & Over 2.526.8%

Away & BTTS25.1%

Draw & BTTS15.8%

Draw & Over 2.513.2%

Home & No BTTS8.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

Home & Under 2.52.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.1%

HT Both Teams Score51.8%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Home Win45.8%

HT/FT Home/Home37.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win28.3%

HT Under 1.526.9%

HT Draw25.9%

HT/FT Away/Away17.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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