France · Ligue 1

Nice vs Lille

Kick-off 16:15 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Nice 25.1% Draw 30.1% Lille 44.8%

Over 2.5 - 19% BTTS - 25%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 17.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lille: 6 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Nice 1 wins, 3 draws, Lille 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.1%

Exact-score model probability

Nice

L D L D W D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Lille

W L W D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Nice 1wins ·3 draws ·Lille 1wins

Nice 0-0 LilleApr 18, 2026

Nice 2-0 LilleOct 29, 2025

Nice 1-2 LilleJan 17, 2025

Nice 2-2 LilleNov 10, 2024

Nice 2-2 LilleMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nice win25.1%

Draw30.1%

Lille win44.8%

Over 1.5 goals65.5%

Over 2.5 goals18.8%

Over 3.5 goals18.1%

Both teams to score25.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

88.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

84.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

82.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)74.3%

Home or Away (12)68.1%

Draw No Bet - Away62.2%

Home or Draw (1X)57.6%

Away Win42.4%

Draw No Bet - Home37.8%

Both Halves Over 0.535.9%

Goal in Both Halves35.9%

Draw31.9%

Exactly 1 Goal29.2%

Home Win25.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.9%

Under 4.5 Goals96.1%

Under 3.5 Goals88.5%

Over 0.5 Goals84.1%

1-3 Goals72.6%

Under 2.5 Goals72.0%

1-2 Goals56.1%

Over 1.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Even51.3%

2-4 Goals51.0%

Total Goals Odd48.7%

Under 1.5 Goals45.1%

2-3 Goals43.4%

Over 2.5 Goals28.0%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

3-4 Goals24.1%

Exactly 3 Goals16.5%

Under 0.5 Goals15.9%

Exactly 0 Goals15.9%

Over 3.5 Goals11.5%

4+ Goals11.5%

Over 4.5 Goals3.9%

Over 5.5 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score65.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)64.8%

Home Team to Score53.5%

Away Clean Sheet46.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)35.2%

Home Clean Sheet34.1%

Away Win to Nil30.6%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.565.9%

Home Over 0.553.5%

Home Exactly 046.5%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Exactly 034.1%

Away Over 1.529.2%

Away Exactly 219.7%

Home Over 1.517.9%

Home Exactly 213.6%

Away Over 2.59.5%

Away 3+ Goals9.5%

Home Over 2.54.3%

Home 3+ Goals4.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw25.1%

Away to win by 125.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 117.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 212.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.1%

Home to win by 26.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.3%

Away to win by 3+5.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.8%

Home to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.558.9%

Away & No BTTS30.6%

Draw & Under 2.528.9%

Away & Under 2.526.2%

BTTS & Over 2.522.2%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

Home & Under 2.516.8%

Away & Over 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Away & BTTS11.8%

Home & Over 2.58.9%

Home & BTTS7.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.9%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.579.9%

HT Over 0.556.3%

HT Draw51.3%

HT Under 0.543.7%

2nd Half More Goals38.9%

Equal Goals Each Half32.2%

HT Away Win29.3%

1st Half More Goals28.9%

HT/FT Away/Away24.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw23.6%

HT Over 1.520.1%

HT Home Win19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.8%

HT/FT Home/Home13.8%

HT Both Teams Score11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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