France · Ligue 1

Nice vs Lorient

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Nice 43.1% Draw 27.0% Lorient 29.9%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 5.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Lorient: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

Nice

W D L D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Lorient

L W D L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Nice 1wins ·3 draws ·Lorient 1wins

Nice 3-3 LorientFeb 22, 2026

Nice 1-3 LorientNov 30, 2025

Nice 3-0 LorientApr 19, 2024

Nice 1-1 LorientAug 20, 2023

Nice 1-1 LorientMar 19, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nice win43.1%

Draw27.0%

Lorient win29.9%

Over 1.5 goals76.5%

Over 2.5 goals60.8%

Over 3.5 goals29.2%

Both teams to score62.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

89.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.2%

Home or Draw (1X)71.2%

Both Halves Over 0.563.3%

Goal in Both Halves63.3%

Draw No Bet - Home62.8%

Draw or Away (X2)51.5%

Home Win48.5%

Draw No Bet - Away37.2%

Away Win28.7%

Draw22.7%

Exactly 1 Goal13.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.9%

Under 5.5 Goals89.4%

Over 1.5 Goals83.0%

Under 4.5 Goals77.9%

Over 2.5 Goals62.2%

2-4 Goals60.9%

Under 3.5 Goals60.1%

1-3 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Over 3.5 Goals39.9%

4+ Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals37.8%

1-2 Goals33.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.8%

Under 1.5 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.1%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.1%

Away Team to Score74.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.3%

Home Clean Sheet25.4%

Home Win to Nil21.3%

Away Clean Sheet15.9%

Away Win to Nil11.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.1%

Away Over 0.574.6%

Home Over 1.554.8%

Away Over 1.539.8%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Home Exactly 129.2%

Home Over 2.527.9%

Home 3+ Goals27.9%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 025.4%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Away Over 2.516.0%

Away 3+ Goals16.0%

Home Exactly 015.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.2%

Home to win by 3+12.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.6%

Home & Over 2.534.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.6%

Home & BTTS27.2%

Home & No BTTS21.3%

Away & Over 2.519.4%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Away & BTTS16.9%

Home & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & Under 2.514.2%

Away & No BTTS11.9%

BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Away & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.4%

HT Under 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Over 1.542.3%

HT Home Win37.6%

HT Draw37.3%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT/FT Home/Home30.2%

HT Both Teams Score25.9%

HT Away Win25.1%

HT Under 0.523.6%

Equal Goals Each Half23.1%

HT/FT Away/Away16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions