England · Championship

Norwich vs Bolton

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

Norwich 90.7% Draw 6.3% Bolton 3.0%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

91%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Norwich: 12 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Norwich

L W W L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Bolton

W L L L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Norwich win90.7%

Draw6.3%

Bolton win3.0%

Over 1.5 goals97.4%

Over 2.5 goals90.6%

Over 3.5 goals78.6%

Both teams to score61.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.4%

Home or Away (12)

90.4%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.5%

Home or Draw (1X)92.8%

Home or Away (12)90.4%

Home Win87.3%

Both Halves Over 0.587.0%

Goal in Both Halves87.0%

Draw or Away (X2)8.7%

Draw5.6%

Draw No Bet - Away3.5%

Away Win3.2%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals86.9%

Over 3.5 Goals75.5%

4+ Goals75.5%

Over 4.5 Goals59.8%

Under 5.5 Goals57.4%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals42.6%

Under 4.5 Goals40.2%

2-4 Goals33.5%

3-4 Goals27.2%

Under 3.5 Goals24.5%

1-3 Goals20.1%

2-3 Goals17.8%

Under 2.5 Goals13.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.5%

1-2 Goals8.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Exactly 2 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score59.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.1%

Home Clean Sheet36.4%

Home Win to Nil36.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.559.6%

Away Exactly 036.4%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.524.3%

Away Exactly 217.1%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.57.2%

Away 3+ Goals7.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)80.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away67.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.8%

Home to win by 3+61.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)51.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away51.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home44.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)34.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away34.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home28.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.0%

Home to win by 215.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.4%

Home to win by 110.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 12.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.1%

BTTS & Over 2.557.1%

Home & BTTS51.3%

Home & No BTTS36.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.529.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.2%

Home & Under 2.56.2%

Draw & BTTS5.1%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Away & Over 2.52.6%

Away & BTTS2.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.4%

HT Home Win75.2%

HT/FT Home/Home73.2%

HT Over 1.570.4%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score30.7%

HT Under 1.529.6%

HT Draw17.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.6%

HT Away Win6.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Away/Away1.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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