England · Championship

Norwich vs Southampton

Kick-off 19:45 · Wed, Oct 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Norwich 55.7% Draw 15.5% Southampton 28.8%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Southampton: 6 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

Norwich

L L L W W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

Southampton

W L W W D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 2

Norwich 1wins ·0 draws ·Southampton 1wins

Norwich 0-2 SouthamptonFeb 25, 2022

Norwich 2-1 SouthamptonNov 20, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Norwich win55.7%

Draw15.5%

Southampton win28.8%

Over 1.5 goals99.2%

Over 2.5 goals96.2%

Over 3.5 goals89.9%

Both teams to score92.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.2%

Away Team to Score

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.4%

Goal in Both Halves85.4%

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Home or Draw (1X)65.8%

Draw No Bet - Home58.8%

Draw or Away (X2)51.5%

Home Win48.2%

Draw No Bet - Away41.2%

Away Win33.8%

Draw17.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.3%

Over 2.5 Goals89.0%

Over 3.5 Goals76.2%

4+ Goals76.2%

Over 4.5 Goals59.4%

Under 5.5 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals42.0%

Under 4.5 Goals40.6%

2-4 Goals36.9%

3-4 Goals29.5%

Under 3.5 Goals23.8%

1-3 Goals23.0%

2-3 Goals20.1%

Exactly 3 Goals12.8%

Under 2.5 Goals11.0%

1-2 Goals10.2%

Exactly 2 Goals7.3%

Under 1.5 Goals3.7%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.7%

Away Team to Score90.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.8%

Home Clean Sheet9.1%

Home Win to Nil8.5%

Away Clean Sheet5.9%

Away Win to Nil5.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.7%

Away Over 0.590.6%

Home Over 1.577.0%

Away Over 1.568.8%

Home Over 2.553.4%

Home 3+ Goals53.4%

Away Over 2.542.8%

Away 3+ Goals42.8%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 121.8%

Home Exactly 116.7%

Away Exactly 09.1%

Home Exactly 05.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.4%

Home to win by 3+17.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.6%

Away to win by 114.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 213.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.8%

Away to win by 29.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.4%

Away to win by 3+9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.6%

Home & Over 2.544.5%

Home & BTTS39.7%

Away & Over 2.531.0%

Away & BTTS28.4%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Over 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS8.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS5.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

Home & Under 2.53.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.5%

HT Over 1.568.1%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT Both Teams Score47.5%

HT Home Win40.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.9%

HT/FT Home/Home31.6%

HT Away Win31.4%

HT Draw27.8%

HT/FT Away/Away21.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT Under 0.59.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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