England · Premier League

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Kick-off 16:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Nottingham Forest 18.4% Draw 29.0% Arsenal 52.6%

Over 2.5 - 37% BTTS - 30%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 20.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 5 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Nottingham Forest 0 wins, 2 draws, Arsenal 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

20.8%

Exact-score model probability

Nottingham Forest

L L W D D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Arsenal

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Nottingham Forest 0wins ·2 draws ·Arsenal 3wins

Nottingham Forest 0-0 ArsenalJan 17, 2026

Nottingham Forest 0-3 ArsenalSep 13, 2025

Nottingham Forest 0-0 ArsenalFeb 26, 2025

Nottingham Forest 0-3 ArsenalNov 23, 2024

Nottingham Forest 1-2 ArsenalJan 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nottingham Forest win18.4%

Draw29.0%

Arsenal win52.6%

Over 1.5 goals67.5%

Over 2.5 goals37.0%

Over 3.5 goals19.4%

Both teams to score30.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

92.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

92.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)92.0%

Draw No Bet - Away89.8%

Home or Away (12)78.1%

Away Win70.1%

Both Halves Over 0.542.1%

Goal in Both Halves42.1%

Home or Draw (1X)29.9%

Exactly 1 Goal25.6%

Draw21.9%

Draw No Bet - Home10.2%

Home Win8.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.9%

Under 4.5 Goals93.7%

Over 0.5 Goals87.9%

Under 3.5 Goals83.7%

1-3 Goals71.5%

Under 2.5 Goals64.7%

Over 1.5 Goals62.3%

2-4 Goals56.0%

1-2 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.0%

Under 1.5 Goals37.7%

Over 2.5 Goals35.3%

3-4 Goals29.0%

Exactly 2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Over 3.5 Goals16.3%

4+ Goals16.3%

Under 0.5 Goals12.1%

Exactly 0 Goals12.1%

Over 4.5 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)73.1%

Away Clean Sheet67.2%

Away Win to Nil55.1%

Home Team to Score32.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)26.9%

Home Clean Sheet18.0%

Home Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.0%

Home Exactly 067.2%

Away Over 1.551.1%

Home Over 0.532.8%

Away Exactly 130.9%

Home Exactly 126.7%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Away Over 2.524.6%

Away 3+ Goals24.6%

Away Exactly 018.0%

Home Over 1.56.1%

Home Exactly 25.3%

Home Over 2.50.8%

Home 3+ Goals0.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)58.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home58.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)41.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away41.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)29.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home29.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw28.7%

Away to win by 128.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.2%

Away to win by 222.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.3%

Away to win by 3+19.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)8.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.6%

Home to win by 16.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.2%

Home to win by 21.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.2%

Home to win by 3+0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.556.4%

Away & No BTTS55.1%

Away & Under 2.538.6%

Away & Over 2.531.6%

Draw & Under 2.520.4%

BTTS & Over 2.518.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

Away & BTTS15.0%

Draw & BTTS9.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Home & No BTTS5.9%

Home & Under 2.55.8%

Home & Over 2.52.2%

Home & BTTS2.1%

Draw & Over 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.575.4%

HT Over 0.561.3%

HT Away Win47.7%

HT/FT Away/Away44.9%

HT Draw44.2%

2nd Half More Goals40.6%

HT Under 0.538.7%

1st Half More Goals29.8%

Equal Goals Each Half29.6%

HT Over 1.524.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away23.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.8%

HT Both Teams Score8.8%

HT Home Win8.1%

HT/FT Home/Home4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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