England · Premier League

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Nottingham Forest 48.5% Draw 28.2% Leeds 23.3%

Over 2.5 - 67% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

57%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Leeds: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Nottingham Forest

D L D L W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Leeds

L W D W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 4

Nottingham Forest 2wins ·0 draws ·Leeds 2wins

Nottingham Forest 1-3 LeedsFeb 6, 2026

Nottingham Forest 3-1 LeedsNov 9, 2025

Nottingham Forest 1-2 LeedsApr 4, 2023

Nottingham Forest 1-0 LeedsFeb 5, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nottingham Forest win48.5%

Draw28.2%

Leeds win23.3%

Over 1.5 goals73.2%

Over 2.5 goals67.3%

Over 3.5 goals25.0%

Both teams to score60.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.5%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.1%

Home or Draw (1X)78.5%

Draw No Bet - Home72.8%

Both Halves Over 0.564.8%

Goal in Both Halves64.8%

Home Win57.6%

Draw or Away (X2)42.3%

Draw No Bet - Away27.2%

Away Win21.5%

Draw20.8%

Exactly 1 Goal12.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.3%

Under 5.5 Goals88.2%

Over 1.5 Goals84.2%

Under 4.5 Goals76.2%

Over 2.5 Goals64.1%

2-4 Goals60.4%

Under 3.5 Goals57.9%

1-3 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.1%

4+ Goals42.1%

2-3 Goals42.1%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals35.9%

1-2 Goals32.2%

Over 4.5 Goals23.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.0%

Under 1.5 Goals15.8%

Over 5.5 Goals11.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.7%

Exactly 0 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.7%

Away Team to Score70.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.5%

Home Clean Sheet29.8%

Home Win to Nil26.1%

Away Clean Sheet12.3%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.7%

Away Over 0.570.2%

Home Over 1.561.9%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Home Over 2.534.9%

Home 3+ Goals34.9%

Away Over 1.534.1%

Away Exactly 029.8%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.8%

Away Exactly 221.8%

Away Over 2.512.3%

Home Exactly 012.3%

Away 3+ Goals12.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.7%

Home to win by 3+17.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.0%

Away to win by 113.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.8%

Away to win by 25.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.2%

Home & Over 2.541.9%

Home & BTTS31.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.5%

Home & No BTTS26.1%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Away & Over 2.514.4%

Draw & Under 2.513.0%

Away & BTTS12.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Away & Under 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.4%

HT Under 1.556.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.6%

HT Over 1.543.8%

HT Home Win43.7%

HT/FT Home/Home37.2%

HT Draw35.8%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score25.6%

Equal Goals Each Half22.7%

HT Under 0.522.6%

HT Away Win20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT/FT Away/Away12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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