England · League Cup

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Aug 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Nottingham Forest 49.0% Draw 26.6% Leeds 24.4%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leeds: 5 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Nottingham Forest 2 wins, 0 draws, Leeds 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Nottingham Forest

L D L D L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Leeds

W L W D W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Nottingham Forest 2wins ·0 draws ·Leeds 3wins

Nottingham Forest 0-1 LeedsAug 22, 2026

Nottingham Forest 1-3 LeedsFeb 6, 2026

Nottingham Forest 3-1 LeedsNov 9, 2025

Nottingham Forest 1-2 LeedsApr 4, 2023

Nottingham Forest 1-0 LeedsFeb 5, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Nottingham Forest win49.0%

Draw26.6%

Leeds win24.4%

Over 1.5 goals80.2%

Over 2.5 goals55.7%

Over 3.5 goals33.3%

Both teams to score58.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

86.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Home or Draw (1X)69.1%

Draw No Bet - Home58.8%

Both Halves Over 0.556.3%

Goal in Both Halves56.3%

Draw or Away (X2)55.8%

Home Win44.2%

Draw No Bet - Away41.2%

Away Win30.9%

Draw25.0%

Exactly 1 Goal17.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals93.9%

Under 5.5 Goals93.5%

Under 4.5 Goals84.7%

Over 1.5 Goals76.9%

Under 3.5 Goals69.2%

1-3 Goals63.1%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.9%

2-3 Goals46.1%

1-2 Goals40.8%

3-4 Goals37.8%

Over 3.5 Goals30.8%

4+ Goals30.8%

Exactly 2 Goals23.8%

Under 1.5 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 0 Goals6.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.7%

Away Team to Score71.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.7%

Home Clean Sheet28.5%

Home Win to Nil22.5%

Away Clean Sheet21.3%

Away Win to Nil15.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.7%

Away Over 0.571.5%

Home Over 1.545.8%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.535.7%

Home Exactly 132.9%

Away Exactly 028.5%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 222.4%

Home Exactly 021.3%

Home Over 2.520.3%

Home 3+ Goals20.3%

Away Over 2.513.2%

Away 3+ Goals13.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.0%

Home to win by 122.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.8%

Away to win by 117.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.9%

Home to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 28.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.3%

Away to win by 3+4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.1%

Home & Over 2.527.5%

Home & No BTTS22.5%

Home & BTTS21.7%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Away & Over 2.518.5%

Draw & Under 2.517.8%

Home & Under 2.516.7%

Away & BTTS15.7%

Away & No BTTS15.2%

Away & Under 2.512.4%

BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.7%

HT Under 1.564.1%

2nd Half More Goals43.8%

HT Draw40.6%

HT Over 1.535.9%

HT Home Win33.8%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.3%

HT/FT Home/Home26.6%

HT Away Win25.6%

Equal Goals Each Half25.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

HT/FT Away/Away17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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