USA · Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC vs DC United

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Orlando City SC 79.5% Draw 12.1% DC United 8.4%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 91.6% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 8.4% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Orlando City SC: 13 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

91.6%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

8.4%

Only the uncovered result loses

Orlando City SC

W W W D W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

DC United

D D W L L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Orlando City SC win79.5%

Draw12.1%

DC United win8.4%

Over 1.5 goals95.5%

Over 2.5 goals85.3%

Over 3.5 goals69.8%

Both teams to score68.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.2%

Draw No Bet - Home90.1%

Home or Away (12)87.9%

Both Halves Over 0.581.9%

Goal in Both Halves81.9%

Home Win79.2%

Draw or Away (X2)19.8%

Draw11.0%

Draw No Bet - Away9.9%

Away Win8.7%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals94.0%

Over 2.5 Goals84.4%

Over 3.5 Goals69.0%

4+ Goals69.0%

Under 5.5 Goals66.7%

Over 4.5 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals49.2%

2-4 Goals43.3%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Over 5.5 Goals33.3%

Under 3.5 Goals31.0%

1-3 Goals29.0%

2-3 Goals25.0%

Under 2.5 Goals15.6%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

1-2 Goals13.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score69.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.3%

Home Clean Sheet29.2%

Home Win to Nil28.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.585.9%

Away Over 0.569.7%

Home Over 2.567.8%

Home 3+ Goals67.8%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Away Over 1.534.1%

Away Exactly 029.2%

Away Exactly 221.7%

Home Exactly 218.1%

Away Over 2.512.4%

Away 3+ Goals12.4%

Home Exactly 110.2%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.1%

Home to win by 3+44.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 116.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 15.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.570.8%

BTTS & Over 2.564.0%

Home & BTTS50.8%

Home & No BTTS28.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

Draw & BTTS10.2%

Home & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Over 2.57.1%

Away & BTTS6.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.5%

Draw & Under 2.54.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Away & No BTTS2.0%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.3%

HT Over 1.563.2%

HT Home Win63.1%

HT/FT Home/Home59.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.8%

HT Both Teams Score33.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Away Win12.5%

HT Under 0.511.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners88.8%

Under 10.5 Corners81.6%

Away Most Corners81.4%

Under 9.5 Corners71.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners64.2%

Under 8.5 Corners59.3%

Over 8.5 Corners40.7%

Over 9.5 Corners28.3%

Over 10.5 Corners18.4%

Over 11.5 Corners11.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners10.9%

Home Most Corners10.2%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards78.5%

Over 2.5 Cards76.2%

Under 4.5 Cards62.9%

Over 3.5 Cards56.7%

Under 3.5 Cards43.3%

Over 4.5 Cards37.1%

Under 2.5 Cards23.8%

Over 5.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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