Italy · Serie B

Padova vs Ascoli

Kick-off 14:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Padova 66.9% Draw 16.3% Ascoli 16.8%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Padova

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Ascoli

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📈 Probability Breakdown

Padova win66.9%

Draw16.3%

Ascoli win16.8%

Over 1.5 goals95.8%

Over 2.5 goals85.8%

Over 3.5 goals70.6%

Both teams to score77.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.4%

Both Halves Over 0.582.3%

Goal in Both Halves82.3%

Home or Draw (1X)82.1%

Draw No Bet - Home79.5%

Home Win67.0%

Draw or Away (X2)32.4%

Draw No Bet - Away20.5%

Away Win17.3%

Draw15.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.3%

Over 3.5 Goals70.2%

4+ Goals70.2%

Under 5.5 Goals65.4%

Over 4.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals47.9%

2-4 Goals42.7%

Over 5.5 Goals34.6%

3-4 Goals33.3%

Under 3.5 Goals29.8%

1-3 Goals28.4%

2-3 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals15.1%

Under 2.5 Goals14.7%

1-2 Goals13.3%

Exactly 2 Goals9.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score80.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.1%

Home Clean Sheet19.1%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.2%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.581.8%

Away Over 0.580.4%

Home Over 2.560.7%

Home 3+ Goals60.7%

Away Over 1.548.8%

Away Exactly 131.5%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.8%

Away 3+ Goals22.8%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Away Exactly 019.1%

Home Exactly 113.4%

Home Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)30.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home30.9%

Home to win by 3+30.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 19.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 24.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.9%

Away to win by 3+2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.7%

Home & Over 2.560.4%

Home & BTTS48.8%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

Away & Over 2.514.9%

Draw & BTTS14.3%

Away & BTTS13.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.5%

HT Over 1.563.7%

HT Home Win53.3%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT/FT Home/Home46.9%

HT Both Teams Score39.8%

HT Under 1.536.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.2%

HT Away Win19.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Under 0.511.5%

HT/FT Away/Away10.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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