Italy · Serie B

Padova vs Carrarese

Kick-off 16:15 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Padova 79.9% Draw 13.9% Carrarese 6.2%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 11%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11%

Exact-score model probability

Padova

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Carrarese

L D

Form 0-1-1 Goals 1:2 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Padova win79.9%

Draw13.9%

Carrarese win6.2%

Over 1.5 goals88.4%

Over 2.5 goals70.1%

Over 3.5 goals48.9%

Both teams to score50.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.3%

Home or Away (12)

87.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.8%

Draw No Bet - Home92.1%

Home or Away (12)87.4%

Home Win80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.569.5%

Goal in Both Halves69.5%

Draw or Away (X2)19.3%

Draw12.4%

Exactly 1 Goal9.7%

Draw No Bet - Away7.9%

Away Win6.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals87.4%

Under 5.5 Goals84.4%

Under 4.5 Goals70.5%

Over 2.5 Goals69.9%

2-4 Goals57.8%

Under 3.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals48.7%

4+ Goals48.7%

1-3 Goals48.3%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.7%

Under 2.5 Goals30.1%

Over 4.5 Goals29.5%

1-2 Goals27.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.5%

Over 5.5 Goals15.6%

Under 1.5 Goals12.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score52.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.6%

Home Clean Sheet47.1%

Home Win to Nil44.4%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 1.577.8%

Home Over 2.554.5%

Home 3+ Goals54.5%

Away Over 0.552.6%

Away Exactly 047.1%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Over 1.517.3%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Away Exactly 213.2%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Away Over 2.54.0%

Away 3+ Goals4.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.6%

Home to win by 3+39.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.4%

Home to win by 221.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 119.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.1%

Away to win by 15.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.561.8%

Home & No BTTS44.4%

BTTS & Over 2.543.9%

Home & BTTS36.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.1%

Home & Under 2.518.7%

Draw & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.7%

Away & Over 2.54.2%

Draw & Over 2.53.9%

Away & BTTS3.9%

Away & No BTTS3.0%

Away & Under 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.4%

HT Home Win61.3%

HT/FT Home/Home58.1%

HT Under 1.551.5%

HT Over 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw29.1%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Both Teams Score20.8%

HT Under 0.519.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.4%

HT Away Win9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.0%

HT/FT Away/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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