Brazil · Serie A

Palmeiras vs Bahia

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Palmeiras 64.3% Draw 19.5% Bahia 16.2%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 67%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bahia: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Palmeiras

D W D D W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Bahia

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:10 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Palmeiras win64.3%

Draw19.5%

Bahia win16.2%

Over 1.5 goals90.3%

Over 2.5 goals73.2%

Over 3.5 goals52.8%

Both teams to score67.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

92.0%

Home Over 0.5

92.0%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.7%

Home or Away (12)82.3%

Draw No Bet - Home79.1%

Both Halves Over 0.571.9%

Goal in Both Halves71.9%

Home Win65.1%

Draw or Away (X2)34.8%

Draw No Bet - Away20.9%

Draw17.6%

Away Win17.2%

Exactly 1 Goal8.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals89.2%

Under 5.5 Goals81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals73.1%

Under 4.5 Goals66.7%

2-4 Goals55.9%

Over 3.5 Goals52.7%

4+ Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals47.3%

1-3 Goals44.9%

3-4 Goals39.9%

2-3 Goals36.5%

Over 4.5 Goals33.3%

Under 2.5 Goals26.9%

1-2 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals20.4%

Over 5.5 Goals18.5%

Exactly 2 Goals16.1%

Under 1.5 Goals10.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.0%

Away Team to Score71.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.0%

Home Clean Sheet28.3%

Home Win to Nil26.1%

Away Clean Sheet7.8%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.0%

Home Over 1.572.1%

Away Over 0.571.6%

Home Over 2.546.7%

Home 3+ Goals46.7%

Away Over 1.535.9%

Away Exactly 135.7%

Away Exactly 028.3%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 222.5%

Home Exactly 119.9%

Away Over 2.513.4%

Away 3+ Goals13.4%

Home Exactly 07.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away74.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)55.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away55.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)25.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home25.2%

Home to win by 3+25.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 218.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 110.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.9%

Home & Over 2.552.3%

Home & BTTS39.1%

Home & No BTTS26.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.6%

Draw & BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.3%

Home & Under 2.512.8%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Away & BTTS11.6%

Draw & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

Away & Under 2.54.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.0%

HT Over 1.551.1%

HT Home Win49.9%

HT Under 1.548.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.0%

HT/FT Home/Home43.9%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw31.8%

HT Both Teams Score29.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.9%

HT Away Win18.3%

HT Under 0.518.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT/FT Away/Away9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners72.0%

Over 8.5 Corners64.3%

Under 10.5 Corners60.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 9.5 Corners51.6%

Home Most Corners50.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners49.1%

Under 9.5 Corners48.4%

Over 10.5 Corners39.1%

Away Most Corners36.8%

Under 8.5 Corners35.7%

Over 11.5 Corners28.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards79.6%

Under 5.5 Cards74.5%

Over 3.5 Cards61.4%

Under 4.5 Cards58.0%

Over 4.5 Cards42.0%

Under 3.5 Cards38.6%

Over 5.5 Cards25.5%

Under 2.5 Cards20.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards17.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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