Brazil · Serie A

Palmeiras vs Corinthians

Kick-off 21:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Palmeiras 77.3% Draw 16.0% Corinthians 6.7%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 47%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 12 points versus 0 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.7%

Exact-score model probability

Palmeiras

W D W D D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 8:2 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.33

Corinthians

L L L L L L

Form 0-0-6 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Palmeiras win77.3%

Draw16.0%

Corinthians win6.7%

Over 1.5 goals84.6%

Over 2.5 goals63.3%

Over 3.5 goals41.1%

Both teams to score46.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.1%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.8%

Home or Away (12)

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home91.1%

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Home Win78.0%

Both Halves Over 0.564.2%

Goal in Both Halves64.2%

Draw or Away (X2)21.8%

Draw14.2%

Exactly 1 Goal12.5%

Draw No Bet - Away8.9%

Away Win7.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Under 5.5 Goals88.8%

Over 1.5 Goals83.6%

Under 4.5 Goals77.0%

Over 2.5 Goals63.2%

2-4 Goals60.6%

Under 3.5 Goals58.9%

1-3 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals42.5%

Over 3.5 Goals41.1%

4+ Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals36.8%

1-2 Goals32.8%

Over 4.5 Goals23.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.4%

Under 1.5 Goals16.4%

Over 5.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)54.3%

Home Clean Sheet50.4%

Away Team to Score49.5%

Home Win to Nil46.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)45.7%

Away Clean Sheet7.6%

Away Win to Nil3.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Home Over 1.572.8%

Away Exactly 050.4%

Away Over 0.549.5%

Home Over 2.547.5%

Home 3+ Goals47.5%

Away Exactly 134.5%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Home Exactly 119.5%

Away Over 1.515.0%

Away Exactly 211.8%

Home Exactly 07.6%

Away Over 2.53.2%

Away 3+ Goals3.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.4%

Home to win by 3+34.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.1%

Home to win by 222.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.7%

Away to win by 15.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.555.5%

Home & No BTTS46.6%

BTTS & Over 2.539.0%

Home & BTTS31.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.529.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.2%

Home & Under 2.522.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.6%

Draw & BTTS10.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Over 2.54.1%

Away & BTTS3.9%

Away & No BTTS3.8%

Draw & Over 2.53.6%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.0%

HT Home Win58.2%

HT Under 1.556.8%

HT/FT Home/Home54.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.2%

HT Draw32.0%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Under 0.523.0%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.4%

HT Both Teams Score18.2%

HT Away Win9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners82.7%

Under 10.5 Corners73.5%

Under 9.5 Corners62.0%

Over 8.5 Corners51.1%

Under 8.5 Corners48.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Home Most Corners46.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners42.0%

Away Most Corners39.9%

Over 9.5 Corners38.0%

Over 10.5 Corners26.5%

Over 11.5 Corners17.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards85.3%

Over 3.5 Cards69.8%

Under 5.5 Cards66.0%

Over 4.5 Cards51.5%

Under 4.5 Cards48.5%

Over 5.5 Cards34.0%

Under 3.5 Cards30.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards19.0%

Under 2.5 Cards14.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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