Brazil · Serie A

Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

Kick-off 22:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Palmeiras 79.8% Draw 13.4% Sao Paulo 6.8%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 56%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 9 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Palmeiras

D D W L D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Sao Paulo

W L D L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Palmeiras win79.8%

Draw13.4%

Sao Paulo win6.8%

Over 1.5 goals90.7%

Over 2.5 goals74.5%

Over 3.5 goals54.4%

Both teams to score55.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.5%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home91.5%

Home or Away (12)87.6%

Home Win80.2%

Both Halves Over 0.573.0%

Goal in Both Halves73.0%

Draw or Away (X2)19.4%

Draw12.0%

Draw No Bet - Away8.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.9%

Away Win7.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals80.5%

Over 2.5 Goals74.2%

Under 4.5 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals55.0%

Over 3.5 Goals54.2%

4+ Goals54.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals45.8%

1-3 Goals43.4%

3-4 Goals39.5%

2-3 Goals35.5%

Over 4.5 Goals34.7%

Under 2.5 Goals25.8%

1-2 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.0%

Over 5.5 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals15.4%

Under 1.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score57.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.3%

Home Clean Sheet42.1%

Home Win to Nil40.1%

Away Clean Sheet4.8%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.580.2%

Home Over 2.558.1%

Home 3+ Goals58.1%

Away Over 0.557.4%

Away Exactly 042.1%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Home Exactly 222.1%

Away Over 1.521.2%

Away Exactly 215.6%

Home Exactly 114.6%

Away Over 2.55.6%

Away 3+ Goals5.6%

Home Exactly 04.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home40.9%

Home to win by 3+40.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 118.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.3%

Away to win by 15.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.564.6%

BTTS & Over 2.549.4%

Home & BTTS40.1%

Home & No BTTS40.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.1%

Home & Under 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS10.0%

Draw & Under 2.57.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Away & BTTS4.6%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.7%

HT Home Win61.8%

HT/FT Home/Home58.4%

HT Over 1.552.3%

HT Under 1.547.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.2%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw27.8%

HT Both Teams Score23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.6%

HT Under 0.517.3%

HT Away Win10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners77.4%

Under 10.5 Corners67.1%

Over 8.5 Corners58.2%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.1%

Away Most Corners55.9%

Under 9.5 Corners54.9%

Over 9.5 Corners45.1%

Under 8.5 Corners41.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners40.4%

Over 10.5 Corners32.9%

Home Most Corners31.5%

Over 11.5 Corners22.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards84.6%

Under 4.5 Cards71.0%

Over 2.5 Cards69.4%

Under 3.5 Cards51.9%

Over 3.5 Cards48.1%

Under 2.5 Cards30.6%

Over 4.5 Cards29.0%

Over 5.5 Cards15.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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