Brazil · Serie A

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Palmeiras 73.0% Draw 18.6% Vasco DA Gama 8.4%

Over 2.5 - 59% BTTS - 47%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 13.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 10 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.1%

Exact-score model probability

Palmeiras

L D W L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Vasco DA Gama

L D D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 2:12 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Palmeiras win73.0%

Draw18.6%

Vasco DA Gama win8.4%

Over 1.5 goals81.6%

Over 2.5 goals58.5%

Over 3.5 goals36.1%

Both teams to score46.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.3%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.5%

Draw No Bet - Home88.7%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Home Win74.0%

Both Halves Over 0.560.5%

Goal in Both Halves60.5%

Draw or Away (X2)25.9%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal14.6%

Draw No Bet - Away11.3%

Away Win9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.3%

Under 4.5 Goals81.0%

Over 1.5 Goals80.6%

Under 3.5 Goals64.0%

2-4 Goals61.5%

1-3 Goals59.1%

Over 2.5 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals44.5%

Under 2.5 Goals41.6%

3-4 Goals39.4%

1-2 Goals36.7%

Over 3.5 Goals36.0%

4+ Goals36.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.1%

Under 1.5 Goals19.4%

Over 4.5 Goals19.0%

Over 5.5 Goals8.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)54.6%

Away Team to Score50.3%

Home Clean Sheet49.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)45.4%

Home Win to Nil44.8%

Away Clean Sheet9.7%

Away Win to Nil4.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.3%

Home Over 1.567.7%

Away Over 0.550.3%

Away Exactly 049.6%

Home Over 2.541.3%

Home 3+ Goals41.3%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 122.6%

Away Over 1.515.6%

Away Exactly 212.2%

Home Exactly 09.7%

Away Over 2.53.4%

Away 3+ Goals3.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.9%

Home to win by 3+28.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.3%

Home to win by 123.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 221.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 17.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.549.7%

Home & No BTTS44.8%

BTTS & Over 2.537.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.6%

Home & BTTS29.2%

Home & Under 2.524.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

Draw & BTTS11.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Away & No BTTS4.9%

Away & Under 2.54.5%

Away & BTTS4.5%

Draw & Over 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.5%

HT Under 1.560.3%

HT Home Win54.3%

HT/FT Home/Home50.5%

2nd Half More Goals44.7%

HT Over 1.539.7%

HT Draw34.7%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.7%

HT Both Teams Score17.6%

HT Away Win11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.2%

HT/FT Away/Away5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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