France · Ligue 1

Paris FC vs Lyon

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Paris FC 40.7% Draw 27.3% Lyon 32.1%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Paris FC: 13 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Paris FC

W W D W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:5 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Lyon

W D L W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 2

Paris FC 0wins ·2 draws ·Lyon 0wins

Paris FC 1-1 LyonMar 8, 2026

Paris FC 3-3 LyonOct 29, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Paris FC win40.7%

Draw27.3%

Lyon win32.1%

Over 1.5 goals76.5%

Over 2.5 goals85.1%

Over 3.5 goals29.2%

Both teams to score64.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.6%

HT Over 0.5

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.5%

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Draw No Bet - Home83.5%

Both Halves Over 0.579.4%

Goal in Both Halves79.4%

Home Win71.0%

Draw or Away (X2)28.5%

Draw No Bet - Away16.5%

Draw14.5%

Away Win14.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals93.4%

Over 2.5 Goals82.0%

Under 5.5 Goals70.9%

Over 3.5 Goals65.1%

4+ Goals65.1%

Under 4.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals47.3%

Over 4.5 Goals46.1%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 3.5 Goals34.9%

1-3 Goals33.3%

Over 5.5 Goals29.1%

2-3 Goals28.3%

Under 2.5 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals16.9%

1-2 Goals16.4%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score74.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.6%

Home Clean Sheet24.8%

Home Win to Nil23.7%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.581.0%

Away Over 0.574.7%

Home Over 2.559.4%

Home 3+ Goals59.4%

Away Over 1.540.3%

Away Exactly 134.5%

Away Exactly 024.8%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Home Exactly 221.7%

Away Over 2.516.3%

Away 3+ Goals16.3%

Home Exactly 114.0%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.5%

Home to win by 3+33.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.4%

Away to win by 18.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.566.5%

Home & Over 2.562.1%

Home & BTTS47.3%

Home & No BTTS23.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS13.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

Away & Over 2.511.4%

Away & BTTS10.7%

Home & Under 2.58.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Under 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.7%

HT Over 1.559.9%

HT Home Win55.7%

HT/FT Home/Home50.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Under 1.540.1%

HT Both Teams Score35.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT Away Win16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Under 0.513.3%

HT/FT Away/Away8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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