France · Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Kick-off 21:05 · Sat, Nov 7

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89% confidence

Paris Saint Germain 88.5% Draw 8.5% Estac Troyes 2.5%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

89%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Paris Saint Germain: 18 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Paris Saint Germain

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 24:6 Scored/game 4 Conceded/game 1

Estac Troyes

W D L L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 4

Paris Saint Germain 3wins ·1 draws ·Estac Troyes 0wins

Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Estac TroyesMay 7, 2023

Paris Saint Germain 4-3 Estac TroyesOct 29, 2022

Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Estac TroyesMay 8, 2022

Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Estac TroyesAug 7, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Paris Saint Germain win88.5%

Draw8.5%

Estac Troyes win2.5%

Over 1.5 goals87.5%

Over 2.5 goals87.8%

Over 3.5 goals48.7%

Both teams to score44.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.1%

HT Over 0.5

88.9%

Home Over 1.5

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home94.4%

Home or Draw (1X)93.1%

Home or Away (12)90.1%

Home Win85.0%

Both Halves Over 0.582.8%

Goal in Both Halves82.8%

Draw or Away (X2)13.1%

Draw8.1%

Draw No Bet - Away5.6%

Away Win5.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals84.7%

Over 3.5 Goals70.0%

4+ Goals70.0%

Under 5.5 Goals65.5%

Over 4.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Under 4.5 Goals47.9%

2-4 Goals41.7%

Over 5.5 Goals34.5%

3-4 Goals32.6%

Under 3.5 Goals30.0%

1-3 Goals27.4%

2-3 Goals23.7%

Under 2.5 Goals15.3%

Exactly 3 Goals14.7%

1-2 Goals12.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score61.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.4%

Home Clean Sheet36.3%

Home Win to Nil35.5%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.2%

Home Over 2.572.7%

Home 3+ Goals72.7%

Away Over 0.561.9%

Away Exactly 036.3%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.525.8%

Away Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 215.5%

Home Exactly 18.0%

Away Over 2.57.8%

Away 3+ Goals7.8%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)85.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home71.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home53.5%

Home to win by 3+53.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)44.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away44.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)35.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home35.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away26.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home20.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 113.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 13.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.2%

Away to win by 21.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.4%

BTTS & Over 2.557.7%

Home & BTTS49.5%

Home & No BTTS35.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

Home & Under 2.58.7%

Draw & BTTS7.3%

Draw & Over 2.54.4%

Away & Over 2.53.9%

Away & BTTS3.8%

Draw & Under 2.53.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS1.3%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.9%

HT Home Win69.5%

HT/FT Home/Home66.7%

HT Over 1.564.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.4%

HT Under 1.535.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score29.8%

HT Draw21.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Under 0.511.1%

HT Away Win8.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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