France · Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Paris Saint Germain 75.6% Draw 16.0% Le Mans 8.3%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-2 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Paris Saint Germain: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.13 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

Paris Saint Germain

W W W L D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Le Mans

W D D L D

Form 1-3-1 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.8 Conceded/game 1.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Paris Saint Germain win75.6%

Draw16.0%

Le Mans win8.3%

Over 1.5 goals83.8%

Over 2.5 goals96.2%

Over 3.5 goals40.7%

Both teams to score88.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.8%

Goal in Both Halves92.8%

Home or Away (12)85.1%

Draw No Bet - Home84.1%

Home or Draw (1X)82.4%

Home Win71.5%

Draw or Away (X2)24.4%

Draw No Bet - Away15.9%

Away Win13.5%

Draw10.9%

Exactly 1 Goal0.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.0%

Over 2.5 Goals92.3%

Over 3.5 Goals86.1%

4+ Goals86.1%

Over 4.5 Goals75.9%

Over 5.5 Goals62.1%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals37.9%

Under 4.5 Goals24.1%

2-4 Goals19.1%

3-4 Goals16.4%

Under 3.5 Goals13.9%

1-3 Goals9.7%

2-3 Goals8.9%

Under 2.5 Goals7.7%

Exactly 3 Goals6.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals3.6%

Exactly 2 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score85.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.5%

Home Clean Sheet10.5%

Home Win to Nil10.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.585.4%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.562.2%

Away Over 2.536.5%

Away 3+ Goals36.5%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Away Exactly 123.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 010.5%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)41.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home41.7%

Home to win by 3+41.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away38.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 114.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 17.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.2%

Home & Over 2.569.8%

Home & BTTS61.2%

Away & Over 2.513.0%

Away & BTTS12.5%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Home & No BTTS10.4%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Home & Under 2.51.8%

Draw & Under 2.51.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.1%

HT Over 1.580.4%

HT Home Win61.2%

HT/FT Home/Home55.5%

HT Both Teams Score54.7%

2nd Half More Goals52.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw20.9%

HT Under 1.519.6%

HT Away Win17.9%

Equal Goals Each Half15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Home6.3%

HT Under 0.54.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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