France · Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

Kick-off 20:30 · Mon, Oct 26

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Paris Saint Germain 64.2% Draw 20.8% Lyon 15.0%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Paris Saint Germain: 18 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Paris Saint Germain

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 17:7 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Lyon

W L D W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Paris Saint Germain 4wins ·0 draws ·Lyon 1wins

Paris Saint Germain 1-2 LyonApr 19, 2026

Paris Saint Germain 3-2 LyonNov 9, 2025

Paris Saint Germain 3-2 LyonFeb 23, 2025

Paris Saint Germain 3-1 LyonDec 15, 2024

Paris Saint Germain 4-1 LyonApr 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Paris Saint Germain win64.2%

Draw20.8%

Lyon win15.0%

Over 1.5 goals82.6%

Over 2.5 goals90.7%

Over 3.5 goals38.2%

Both teams to score80.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.5%

Both Halves Over 0.584.6%

Goal in Both Halves84.6%

Home or Draw (1X)84.3%

Draw No Bet - Home82.7%

Home Win70.8%

Draw or Away (X2)28.3%

Draw No Bet - Away17.3%

Away Win14.8%

Draw13.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.4%

Over 2.5 Goals87.5%

Over 3.5 Goals74.1%

4+ Goals74.1%

Under 5.5 Goals60.5%

Over 4.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals43.0%

Over 5.5 Goals39.5%

2-4 Goals38.4%

3-4 Goals30.5%

Under 3.5 Goals25.9%

1-3 Goals24.4%

2-3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals13.4%

Under 2.5 Goals12.5%

1-2 Goals10.9%

Exactly 2 Goals7.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score80.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.4%

Home Clean Sheet18.9%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.585.0%

Away Over 0.580.2%

Home Over 2.566.2%

Home 3+ Goals66.2%

Away Over 1.548.8%

Away Exactly 131.3%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Over 2.522.9%

Away 3+ Goals22.9%

Away Exactly 018.9%

Home Exactly 218.8%

Home Exactly 110.9%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)70.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)63.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away63.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home35.6%

Home to win by 3+35.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 18.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.1%

Away to win by 24.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.2%

Home & Over 2.565.1%

Home & BTTS52.5%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.4%

Away & Over 2.512.9%

Draw & BTTS12.9%

Away & BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.1%

Home & Under 2.55.7%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & No BTTS2.6%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.0%

HT Over 1.566.9%

HT Home Win56.7%

HT/FT Home/Home50.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score41.4%

HT Under 1.533.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.5%

HT Away Win17.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT Under 0.510.0%

HT/FT Away/Away8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions