France · Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco

Kick-off 20:05 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Paris Saint Germain 67.7% Draw 18.4% Monaco 13.8%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monaco: 9 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Paris Saint Germain

D D L W W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Monaco

W W W L L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Paris Saint Germain 2wins ·1 draws ·Monaco 2wins

Paris Saint Germain 1-3 MonacoMar 6, 2026

Paris Saint Germain 0-1 MonacoNov 29, 2025

Paris Saint Germain 4-1 MonacoFeb 7, 2025

Paris Saint Germain 4-2 MonacoDec 18, 2024

Paris Saint Germain 0-0 MonacoMar 1, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Paris Saint Germain win67.7%

Draw18.4%

Monaco win13.8%

Over 1.5 goals87.8%

Over 2.5 goals95.9%

Over 3.5 goals48.0%

Both teams to score87.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.2%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.0%

Goal in Both Halves88.0%

Home or Away (12)85.5%

Home or Draw (1X)82.7%

Draw No Bet - Home81.5%

Home Win69.7%

Draw or Away (X2)28.8%

Draw No Bet - Away18.5%

Away Win15.8%

Draw13.1%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals90.6%

Over 3.5 Goals80.0%

4+ Goals80.0%

Over 4.5 Goals65.1%

Under 5.5 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Over 5.5 Goals48.3%

Under 4.5 Goals34.9%

2-4 Goals31.1%

3-4 Goals25.5%

Under 3.5 Goals20.0%

1-3 Goals18.1%

2-3 Goals16.1%

Exactly 3 Goals10.5%

Under 2.5 Goals9.4%

1-2 Goals7.6%

Exactly 2 Goals5.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score84.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.0%

Home Clean Sheet14.5%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Away Clean Sheet2.4%

Away Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.587.3%

Away Over 0.584.0%

Home Over 2.570.7%

Home 3+ Goals70.7%

Away Over 1.556.1%

Away Over 2.529.5%

Away 3+ Goals29.5%

Away Exactly 127.8%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 216.6%

Away Exactly 014.5%

Home Exactly 18.9%

Home Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.3%

Home to win by 3+36.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 116.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.4%

Away to win by 18.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.4%

Away to win by 24.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.9%

Away to win by 3+2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.4%

Home & Over 2.565.9%

Home & BTTS55.5%

Away & Over 2.514.5%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Away & BTTS13.8%

Draw & BTTS12.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Home & Under 2.53.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & No BTTS2.0%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.1%

HT Over 1.572.2%

HT Home Win56.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT/FT Home/Home50.7%

HT Both Teams Score47.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.8%

HT Draw24.1%

HT Away Win19.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT/FT Away/Away9.2%

HT Under 0.57.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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