Italy · Serie A

Parma vs Cagliari

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Parma 36.6% Draw 31.2% Cagliari 32.2%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Cagliari: 9 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Parma 0 wins, 1 draws, Cagliari 3 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.4%

Exact-score model probability

Parma

W L L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Cagliari

W W L D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 4

Parma 0wins ·1 draws ·Cagliari 3wins

Parma 1-1 CagliariFeb 27, 2026

Parma 0-2 CagliariSep 13, 2025

Parma 1-2 CagliariFeb 9, 2025

Parma 2-3 CagliariSep 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Parma win36.6%

Draw31.2%

Cagliari win32.2%

Over 1.5 goals60.4%

Over 2.5 goals56.1%

Over 3.5 goals14.7%

Both teams to score58.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

83.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

83.2%

Under 4.5 Goals

82.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.5%

Home or Draw (1X)64.0%

Draw or Away (X2)60.5%

Both Halves Over 0.559.0%

Goal in Both Halves59.0%

Draw No Bet - Home52.3%

Draw No Bet - Away47.7%

Home Win39.5%

Away Win36.0%

Draw24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal15.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.8%

Under 5.5 Goals92.1%

Under 4.5 Goals82.3%

Over 1.5 Goals79.4%

Under 3.5 Goals65.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.5%

Over 2.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.1%

Under 2.5 Goals43.4%

3-4 Goals38.9%

1-2 Goals38.1%

Over 3.5 Goals34.2%

4+ Goals34.2%

Exactly 2 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.6%

Over 4.5 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.2%

Exactly 0 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.0%

Away Team to Score76.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.5%

Home Clean Sheet23.7%

Away Clean Sheet22.0%

Home Win to Nil18.5%

Away Win to Nil16.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.0%

Away Over 0.576.3%

Home Over 1.544.7%

Away Over 1.542.1%

Away Exactly 134.1%

Home Exactly 133.3%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 023.7%

Home Exactly 022.0%

Home Over 2.519.5%

Home 3+ Goals19.5%

Away Over 2.517.6%

Away 3+ Goals17.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 120.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.7%

Home to win by 211.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 210.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.5%

Home to win by 3+7.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.2%

Away to win by 3+6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.548.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.0%

Home & Over 2.525.6%

Away & Over 2.523.1%

Home & BTTS20.9%

Away & BTTS19.3%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Home & No BTTS18.5%

Away & No BTTS16.7%

Draw & Under 2.516.6%

Home & Under 2.513.9%

Away & Under 2.512.9%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.5%

HT Under 1.561.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.4%

HT Draw39.5%

HT Over 1.538.4%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Home Win31.3%

HT Away Win29.2%

HT Under 0.526.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.2%

HT Both Teams Score23.6%

HT/FT Home/Home23.6%

HT/FT Away/Away21.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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