Italy · Serie A

Parma vs Genoa

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

34% confidence

Parma 32.8% Draw 33.1% Genoa 34.1%

Over 2.5 - 15% BTTS - 24%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-0 at 35%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Parma: 4 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

35%

Exact-score model probability

Parma

L D L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:7 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Genoa

D L L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 3:11 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 4

Parma 0wins ·2 draws ·Genoa 2wins

Parma 0-0 GenoaJan 18, 2026

Parma 0-0 GenoaOct 19, 2025

Parma 0-1 GenoaJan 12, 2025

Parma 0-1 GenoaNov 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Parma win32.8%

Draw33.1%

Genoa win34.1%

Over 1.5 goals53.3%

Over 2.5 goals15.3%

Over 3.5 goals10.6%

Both teams to score23.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Under 1.5

91.8%

Under 2.5 Goals

91.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)

83.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)75.1%

Draw or Away (X2)70.2%

Home or Away (12)54.7%

Draw No Bet - Home54.5%

Draw No Bet - Away45.5%

Draw45.3%

Exactly 1 Goal36.7%

Home Win29.8%

Away Win24.9%

Both Halves Over 0.516.5%

Goal in Both Halves16.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.9%

Under 4.5 Goals99.6%

Under 3.5 Goals97.8%

Under 2.5 Goals91.0%

Under 1.5 Goals71.8%

Over 0.5 Goals65.0%

1-3 Goals62.8%

Total Goals Even56.1%

1-2 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Odd43.9%

Under 0.5 Goals35.0%

Exactly 0 Goals35.0%

Over 1.5 Goals28.2%

2-4 Goals27.8%

2-3 Goals26.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.3%

Over 2.5 Goals9.0%

3-4 Goals8.5%

Exactly 3 Goals6.7%

Over 3.5 Goals2.2%

4+ Goals2.2%

Over 4.5 Goals0.4%

Over 5.5 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)83.4%

Home Clean Sheet61.4%

Away Clean Sheet57.0%

Home Team to Score43.0%

Away Team to Score38.6%

Home Win to Nil26.4%

Away Win to Nil22.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)16.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Exactly 061.4%

Home Exactly 057.0%

Home Over 0.543.0%

Away Over 0.538.6%

Home Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 129.9%

Home Over 1.511.0%

Home Exactly 29.0%

Away Over 1.58.6%

Away Exactly 27.3%

Home Over 2.52.0%

Home 3+ Goals2.0%

Away Over 2.51.3%

Away 3+ Goals1.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away70.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)29.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 119.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.1%

Home to win by 26.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.3%

Home to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.581.5%

Draw & Under 2.544.6%

Home & No BTTS26.4%

Home & Under 2.525.2%

Away & No BTTS22.0%

Away & Under 2.521.2%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

Home & Over 2.54.6%

Away & Over 2.53.7%

Home & BTTS3.4%

Away & BTTS2.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.52.0%

Draw & Over 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.591.8%

HT Draw65.9%

HT Under 0.562.4%

Equal Goals Each Half45.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw40.1%

HT Over 0.537.6%

2nd Half More Goals30.9%

1st Half More Goals23.9%

HT Home Win18.4%

HT Away Win15.7%

HT/FT Home/Home15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Away/Away12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.8%

HT Over 1.58.2%

HT Both Teams Score4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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