Italy · Serie A

Parma vs Monza

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Parma 45.5% Draw 29.2% Monza 25.3%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monza: 3 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Parma 1 wins, 1 draws, Monza 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10%

Exact-score model probability

Parma

L L W L L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Monza

L L W W D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:12 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 2

Parma 1wins ·1 draws ·Monza 0wins

Parma 1-1 MonzaMar 15, 2025

Parma 2-1 MonzaDec 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Parma win45.5%

Draw29.2%

Monza win25.3%

Over 1.5 goals61.6%

Over 2.5 goals70.8%

Over 3.5 goals15.9%

Both teams to score70.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

88.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.4%

Home or Draw (1X)71.1%

Both Halves Over 0.564.0%

Goal in Both Halves64.0%

Draw No Bet - Home62.7%

Draw or Away (X2)51.4%

Home Win48.5%

Draw No Bet - Away37.3%

Away Win28.9%

Draw22.6%

Exactly 1 Goal12.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Under 5.5 Goals88.9%

Over 1.5 Goals83.6%

Under 4.5 Goals77.1%

Over 2.5 Goals63.1%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 3.5 Goals59.1%

1-3 Goals55.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.6%

Over 3.5 Goals40.9%

4+ Goals40.9%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals36.9%

1-2 Goals33.0%

Over 4.5 Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.4%

Under 1.5 Goals16.4%

Over 5.5 Goals11.1%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals3.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.4%

Away Team to Score75.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.5%

Home Clean Sheet24.8%

Home Win to Nil21.0%

Away Clean Sheet15.6%

Away Win to Nil11.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.4%

Away Over 0.575.2%

Home Over 1.555.5%

Away Over 1.540.6%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 128.9%

Home Over 2.528.6%

Home 3+ Goals28.6%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 024.8%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Away Over 2.516.5%

Away 3+ Goals16.5%

Home Exactly 015.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.5%

Home to win by 121.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.3%

Home to win by 3+12.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 28.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.5%

Home & Over 2.534.7%

Home & BTTS27.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.9%

Home & No BTTS21.0%

Away & Over 2.519.7%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Away & BTTS17.2%

Home & Under 2.513.9%

Draw & Under 2.513.9%

Away & No BTTS11.7%

BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.7%

Away & Under 2.59.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.9%

HT Under 1.557.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.4%

HT Over 1.543.0%

HT Home Win37.7%

HT Draw37.0%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT/FT Home/Home30.3%

HT Both Teams Score26.4%

HT Away Win25.3%

HT Under 0.523.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT/FT Away/Away16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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