Netherlands · Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

PEC Zwolle 20.2% Draw 25.2% Ajax 54.6%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 38%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 84%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 14.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Ajax: 4 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

84%

Market agrees with this pick

PEC Zwolle

L L W L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:18 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 3

Ajax

W W W D W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:3 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

PEC Zwolle 0wins ·1 draws ·Ajax 4wins

PEC Zwolle 0-0 AjaxMar 1, 2026

PEC Zwolle 1-3 AjaxSep 13, 2025

PEC Zwolle 0-1 AjaxMar 9, 2025

PEC Zwolle 0-2 AjaxNov 24, 2024

PEC Zwolle 1-3 AjaxMar 31, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

PEC Zwolle win20.2%

Draw25.2%

Ajax win54.6%

Over 1.5 goals81.4%

Over 2.5 goals69.7%

Over 3.5 goals35.1%

Both teams to score37.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)94.3%

Draw No Bet - Away93.7%

Home or Away (12)87.3%

Away Win81.9%

Both Halves Over 0.563.5%

Goal in Both Halves63.5%

Home or Draw (1X)18.0%

Exactly 1 Goal12.9%

Draw12.5%

Draw No Bet - Home6.3%

Home Win5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Under 5.5 Goals89.4%

Over 1.5 Goals83.0%

Under 4.5 Goals77.9%

Over 2.5 Goals62.3%

2-4 Goals60.8%

Under 3.5 Goals60.0%

1-3 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals42.9%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Over 3.5 Goals40.0%

4+ Goals40.0%

Under 2.5 Goals37.7%

1-2 Goals33.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.7%

Under 1.5 Goals17.0%

Over 5.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.4%

Away Clean Sheet57.3%

Away Win to Nil53.3%

Home Team to Score42.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.6%

Home Clean Sheet7.0%

Home Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.9%

Away Over 1.574.3%

Home Exactly 057.3%

Away Over 2.549.6%

Away 3+ Goals49.6%

Home Over 0.542.5%

Home Exactly 131.8%

Away Exactly 224.7%

Away Exactly 118.5%

Home Over 1.510.7%

Home Exactly 28.8%

Away Exactly 07.0%

Home Over 2.51.9%

Home 3+ Goals1.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away94.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)81.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home79.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home61.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away61.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)38.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home38.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away38.5%

Away to win by 3+38.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.6%

Away to win by 222.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.7%

Away to win by 120.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away20.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home18.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.3%

Home to win by 14.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.0%

Home to win by 21.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.2%

Home to win by 3+0.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.557.0%

Away & No BTTS53.3%

BTTS & Over 2.533.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.6%

Away & BTTS28.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.528.6%

Away & Under 2.524.8%

Draw & Under 2.59.9%

Draw & BTTS8.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Home & No BTTS3.0%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Home & Over 2.52.6%

Draw & Over 2.52.6%

Home & BTTS2.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.5%

HT Away Win61.3%

HT/FT Away/Away58.7%

HT Under 1.557.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Over 1.542.5%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Draw31.0%

HT Under 0.523.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.8%

HT Both Teams Score15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.9%

HT Home Win7.7%

HT/FT Home/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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