USA · Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

Full time · 3:2

📊 Our Prediction

Home Win

80% confidence

Philadelphia Union 80.0% Draw 12.0% Atlanta United FC 8.0%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 57%

✓ Pick was correct (3:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Form gap

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Attacking threat

80%

Home or Draw (1X)

Defensive strength

78%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Philadelphia Union has a significant form gap over Atlanta United FC, with the home team averaging 1.3 goals per game at home. Atlanta United FC's poor form and lack of clean sheets make them vulnerable to Philadelphia Union's attacking threat, led by key players. The home team's defensive strength also gives them an edge. With Philadelphia Union's strong home record and Atlanta United FC's struggles, the match is likely to see Philadelphia Union dominate.

💡

Top Tip

Philadelphia Union is likely to win at home against a struggling Atlanta United FC

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 92% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 8.0% on the only losing outcome.

Form gap

Recent form leans to Philadelphia Union: 8 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home Win

1X · Home or Draw

92%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

Only the uncovered result loses

Philadelphia Union

W W L D D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Atlanta United FC

L D L L D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Philadelphia Union win80.0%

Draw12.0%

Atlanta United FC win8.0%

Over 1.5 goals90.3%

Over 2.5 goals74.3%

Over 3.5 goals53.3%

Both teams to score57.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.3%

Draw No Bet - Home90.4%

Home or Away (12)86.8%

Home Win78.5%

Both Halves Over 0.572.3%

Goal in Both Halves72.3%

Draw or Away (X2)21.2%

Draw12.8%

Draw No Bet - Away9.6%

Away Win8.3%

Exactly 1 Goal8.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals89.2%

Under 5.5 Goals81.3%

Over 2.5 Goals73.4%

Under 4.5 Goals66.4%

2-4 Goals55.6%

Over 3.5 Goals53.1%

4+ Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals46.9%

1-3 Goals44.4%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.2%

Over 4.5 Goals33.6%

Under 2.5 Goals26.6%

1-2 Goals24.1%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 5.5 Goals18.7%

Exactly 2 Goals15.9%

Under 1.5 Goals10.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.4%

Away Team to Score58.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.2%

Home Clean Sheet40.8%

Home Win to Nil38.7%

Away Clean Sheet5.3%

Away Win to Nil3.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.4%

Home Over 1.578.9%

Away Over 0.558.9%

Home Over 2.556.1%

Home 3+ Goals56.1%

Away Exactly 040.8%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Home Exactly 222.8%

Away Over 1.522.4%

Away Exactly 216.3%

Home Exactly 115.5%

Away Over 2.56.2%

Away 3+ Goals6.2%

Home Exactly 05.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.5%

Home to win by 3+38.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 220.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.8%

Away to win by 15.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.562.8%

BTTS & Over 2.550.1%

Home & BTTS39.8%

Home & No BTTS38.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.6%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.7%

Away & Over 2.55.6%

Away & BTTS5.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Away & No BTTS3.1%

Away & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.2%

HT Home Win60.2%

HT/FT Home/Home56.5%

HT Over 1.551.5%

HT Under 1.548.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw28.6%

HT Both Teams Score24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.7%

HT Under 0.517.8%

HT Away Win11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.8%

HT/FT Away/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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