USA · Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Philadelphia Union 78.4% Draw 10.7% CF Montreal 10.9%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 89.1% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 10.9% on the only losing outcome.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Philadelphia Union: 14 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

89.1%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

10.9%

Only the uncovered result loses

Philadelphia Union

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

CF Montreal

L W D D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Philadelphia Union win78.4%

Draw10.7%

CF Montreal win10.9%

Over 1.5 goals99.0%

Over 2.5 goals95.3%

Over 3.5 goals87.9%

Both teams to score84.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.8%

Goal in Both Halves

91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.8%

Goal in Both Halves91.8%

Draw No Bet - Home87.6%

Home or Away (12)86.1%

Home or Draw (1X)85.2%

Home Win75.4%

Draw or Away (X2)20.6%

Draw No Bet - Away12.4%

Away Win10.7%

Draw9.9%

Exactly 1 Goal1.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals91.5%

Over 3.5 Goals84.4%

4+ Goals84.4%

Over 4.5 Goals72.9%

Over 5.5 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals41.8%

Under 4.5 Goals27.1%

2-4 Goals21.9%

3-4 Goals18.5%

Under 3.5 Goals15.6%

1-3 Goals11.4%

2-3 Goals10.4%

Under 2.5 Goals8.5%

Exactly 3 Goals7.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

1-2 Goals4.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score82.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.8%

Home Clean Sheet13.8%

Home Win to Nil13.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.582.2%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.555.4%

Away Over 2.529.5%

Away 3+ Goals29.5%

Away Exactly 126.8%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 013.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away78.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away65.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)50.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away50.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.8%

Home to win by 3+45.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)34.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away34.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 113.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 15.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.9%

Away to win by 22.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.8%

Home & Over 2.573.0%

Home & BTTS61.7%

Home & No BTTS13.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.6%

Away & Over 2.510.1%

Away & BTTS9.8%

Draw & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Home & Under 2.52.3%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.5%

HT Over 1.578.5%

HT Home Win64.1%

HT/FT Home/Home59.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.9%

HT Both Teams Score50.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Under 1.521.5%

HT Draw20.5%

Equal Goals Each Half15.6%

HT Away Win15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away6.2%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT Under 0.55.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners75.7%

Home Most Corners75.4%

Under 11.5 Corners69.7%

Over 8.5 Corners66.7%

Under 10.5 Corners58.3%

Over 9.5 Corners54.2%

Under 9.5 Corners45.8%

Over 10.5 Corners41.7%

Under 8.5 Corners33.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Over 11.5 Corners30.3%

Away Most Corners15.5%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards95.8%

Under 4.5 Cards89.1%

Under 3.5 Cards75.8%

Under 2.5 Cards54.4%

Over 2.5 Cards45.6%

Over 3.5 Cards24.2%

Over 4.5 Cards10.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards10.0%

Over 5.5 Cards4.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions