USA · Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte

Kick-off 19:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Philadelphia Union 77.3% Draw 11.1% Charlotte 11.6%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Philadelphia Union: 16 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.3%

Exact-score model probability

Philadelphia Union

W W W W W D

Form 5-1-0 Goals 20:5 Scored/game 3.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Charlotte

D W D W W D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Philadelphia Union win77.3%

Draw11.1%

Charlotte win11.6%

Over 1.5 goals98.9%

Over 2.5 goals95.2%

Over 3.5 goals87.6%

Both teams to score85.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.6%

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.5%

Goal in Both Halves

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.5%

Goal in Both Halves91.5%

Draw No Bet - Home86.7%

Home or Away (12)86.0%

Home or Draw (1X)84.9%

Home Win74.6%

Draw or Away (X2)21.7%

Draw No Bet - Away13.3%

Away Win11.4%

Draw10.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals91.6%

Over 3.5 Goals84.3%

4+ Goals84.3%

Over 4.5 Goals72.7%

Over 5.5 Goals57.8%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Total Goals Odd48.1%

Under 5.5 Goals42.2%

Under 4.5 Goals27.3%

2-4 Goals22.4%

3-4 Goals19.0%

Under 3.5 Goals15.7%

1-3 Goals11.8%

2-3 Goals10.7%

Under 2.5 Goals8.4%

Exactly 3 Goals7.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

1-2 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 2 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.1%

Away Team to Score82.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.2%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil13.3%

Away Clean Sheet1.2%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.1%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.582.8%

Home Over 2.578.1%

Home 3+ Goals78.1%

Away Over 1.556.2%

Away Over 2.530.2%

Away 3+ Goals30.2%

Away Exactly 126.5%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Home Exactly 211.7%

Home Exactly 15.3%

Home Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.6%

Home to win by 3+44.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.3%

Home & Over 2.572.2%

Home & BTTS61.3%

Home & No BTTS13.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Away & Over 2.510.8%

Away & BTTS10.4%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.3%

HT Over 1.578.1%

HT Home Win63.2%

HT/FT Home/Home58.2%

2nd Half More Goals51.9%

HT Both Teams Score50.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.521.9%

HT Draw20.9%

HT Away Win15.9%

Equal Goals Each Half15.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT Under 0.55.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners84.2%

Home Most Corners82.1%

Over 8.5 Corners75.3%

Over 9.5 Corners64.1%

Under 11.5 Corners59.9%

Over 10.5 Corners52.0%

Under 10.5 Corners48.0%

Over 11.5 Corners40.1%

Under 9.5 Corners35.9%

Away Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Under 8.5 Corners24.7%

Away Most Corners10.8%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards78.5%

Over 2.5 Cards76.2%

Under 4.5 Cards62.9%

Over 3.5 Cards56.7%

Under 3.5 Cards43.3%

Over 4.5 Cards37.1%

Under 2.5 Cards23.8%

Over 5.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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