USA · Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

93% confidence

Philadelphia Union 93.1% Draw 5.1% Real Salt Lake 1.8%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

93%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Philadelphia Union: 14 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Philadelphia Union

W W W W D D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 19:6 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1

Real Salt Lake

W D L L L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Philadelphia Union win93.1%

Draw5.1%

Real Salt Lake win1.8%

Over 1.5 goals96.8%

Over 2.5 goals88.9%

Over 3.5 goals75.6%

Both teams to score51.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.6%

HT Over 0.5

90.5%

Over 8.5 Corners

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.8%

Home or Draw (1X)94.0%

Home or Away (12)91.6%

Home Win89.6%

Both Halves Over 0.585.4%

Goal in Both Halves85.4%

Draw or Away (X2)6.4%

Draw4.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Draw No Bet - Away2.2%

Away Win2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.3%

Over 3.5 Goals72.6%

4+ Goals72.6%

Under 5.5 Goals61.5%

Over 4.5 Goals55.9%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Total Goals Odd47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals44.1%

Over 5.5 Goals38.5%

2-4 Goals36.7%

3-4 Goals29.4%

Under 3.5 Goals27.4%

1-3 Goals22.8%

2-3 Goals20.0%

Under 2.5 Goals14.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.7%

1-2 Goals10.1%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Exactly 2 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.7%

Away Team to Score49.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.3%

Home Clean Sheet46.1%

Home Win to Nil45.5%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.549.9%

Away Exactly 046.1%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Away Over 1.516.1%

Away Exactly 212.4%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 2.53.7%

Away 3+ Goals3.7%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home80.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)78.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home65.9%

Home to win by 3+65.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)64.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away64.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)48.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home48.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away47.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)31.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home31.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away30.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)17.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home17.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw17.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 214.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.3%

Home to win by 19.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away6.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 11.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.8%

BTTS & Over 2.547.6%

Home & No BTTS45.5%

Home & BTTS44.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.537.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.9%

Home & Under 2.57.8%

Draw & BTTS3.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Over 2.51.4%

Away & BTTS1.4%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Away & Under 2.50.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.5%

HT Home Win78.0%

HT/FT Home/Home76.6%

HT Over 1.568.1%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.9%

HT Both Teams Score24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT Draw17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT Under 0.59.5%

HT Away Win5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.1%

HT/FT Away/Away1.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners93.9%

Over 8.5 Corners90.4%

Home Most Corners87.4%

Over 9.5 Corners84.0%

Over 10.5 Corners75.5%

Over 11.5 Corners65.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners42.0%

Under 11.5 Corners34.5%

Under 10.5 Corners24.5%

Under 9.5 Corners16.0%

Under 8.5 Corners9.6%

Away Most Corners7.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards79.8%

Over 2.5 Cards74.9%

Under 4.5 Cards64.5%

Over 3.5 Cards55.0%

Under 3.5 Cards45.0%

Over 4.5 Cards35.5%

Under 2.5 Cards25.1%

Over 5.5 Cards20.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions