USA · Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC

Kick-off 03:30 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Portland Timbers 70.3% Draw 12.5% Atlanta United FC 17.2%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

91%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Portland Timbers win at 70.3%.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Portland Timbers: 8 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Portland Timbers win

70.3%

1X2 model probability

Draw

12.5%

1X2 model probability

Atlanta United FC win

17.2%

1X2 model probability

Portland Timbers

L D W L D W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:12 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2

Atlanta United FC

D L L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portland Timbers win70.3%

Draw12.5%

Atlanta United FC win17.2%

Over 1.5 goals99.4%

Over 2.5 goals96.9%

Over 3.5 goals91.4%

Both teams to score90.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

92.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.593.7%

Goal in Both Halves93.7%

Home or Away (12)84.1%

Draw No Bet - Home80.2%

Home or Draw (1X)79.2%

Home Win67.5%

Draw or Away (X2)28.4%

Draw No Bet - Away19.8%

Away Win16.6%

Draw11.7%

Exactly 1 Goal0.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals92.9%

Over 3.5 Goals87.7%

4+ Goals87.7%

Over 4.5 Goals78.5%

Over 5.5 Goals65.7%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Total Goals Even47.9%

Under 5.5 Goals34.3%

Under 4.5 Goals21.5%

2-4 Goals16.6%

3-4 Goals14.4%

Under 3.5 Goals12.3%

1-3 Goals8.1%

2-3 Goals7.5%

Under 2.5 Goals7.1%

Exactly 3 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals2.9%

Exactly 2 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score87.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.1%

Home Clean Sheet7.9%

Home Win to Nil7.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.587.9%

Home Over 2.578.5%

Home 3+ Goals78.5%

Away Over 1.568.2%

Away Over 2.543.5%

Away 3+ Goals43.5%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 119.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 07.9%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)58.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away58.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.7%

Home to win by 3+37.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 215.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.0%

Away to win by 18.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.9%

Away to win by 3+3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.9%

Home & Over 2.566.2%

Home & BTTS59.7%

Away & Over 2.516.1%

Away & BTTS15.6%

Draw & BTTS11.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.6%

Home & No BTTS7.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Home & Under 2.51.3%

Draw & Under 2.51.1%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.0%

Away & Under 2.50.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.7%

HT Over 1.582.2%

HT Both Teams Score58.5%

HT Home Win58.2%

2nd Half More Goals52.7%

HT/FT Home/Home51.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.2%

HT Away Win20.5%

HT Under 1.517.8%

Equal Goals Each Half14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.1%

HT/FT Away/Away10.0%

HT/FT Away/Home6.6%

HT Under 0.54.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners84.2%

Home Most Corners80.5%

Over 8.5 Corners76.8%

Over 9.5 Corners65.9%

Under 11.5 Corners57.9%

Over 10.5 Corners54.0%

Under 10.5 Corners46.0%

Over 11.5 Corners42.1%

Under 9.5 Corners34.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners33.9%

Under 8.5 Corners23.2%

Away Most Corners12.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards83.6%

Under 5.5 Cards68.9%

Over 3.5 Cards67.2%

Under 4.5 Cards51.6%

Over 4.5 Cards48.4%

Under 3.5 Cards32.8%

Over 5.5 Cards31.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.3%

Under 2.5 Cards16.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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