USA · Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers vs Austin

Kick-off 03:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

Portland Timbers 88.1% Draw 7.4% Austin 4.5%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Portland Timbers: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Portland Timbers

D W L W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Austin

D W L L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portland Timbers win88.1%

Draw7.4%

Austin win4.5%

Over 1.5 goals97.9%

Over 2.5 goals92.0%

Over 3.5 goals81.2%

Both teams to score69.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home94.9%

Home or Draw (1X)91.4%

Home or Away (12)89.3%

Both Halves Over 0.588.3%

Goal in Both Halves88.3%

Home Win84.7%

Draw or Away (X2)11.2%

Draw6.7%

Draw No Bet - Away5.1%

Away Win4.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals88.3%

Over 3.5 Goals78.0%

4+ Goals78.0%

Over 4.5 Goals63.3%

Under 5.5 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals46.5%

Under 4.5 Goals36.7%

2-4 Goals30.5%

3-4 Goals25.0%

Under 3.5 Goals22.0%

1-3 Goals17.7%

2-3 Goals15.8%

Under 2.5 Goals11.7%

Exactly 3 Goals10.3%

1-2 Goals7.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score67.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.7%

Home Clean Sheet28.9%

Home Win to Nil28.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.567.1%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Away Over 1.532.4%

Away Exactly 028.9%

Away Exactly 220.8%

Away Over 2.511.6%

Away 3+ Goals11.6%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)73.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home73.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away70.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)57.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home57.9%

Home to win by 3+57.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)55.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away55.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home40.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away38.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)25.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home25.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away22.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 215.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home13.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.4%

Home to win by 111.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 13.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.1%

Away to win by 21.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.579.9%

BTTS & Over 2.564.5%

Home & BTTS56.2%

Home & No BTTS28.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.8%

Draw & BTTS6.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Home & Under 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.5%

Away & Over 2.53.9%

Away & BTTS3.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.3%

HT Over 1.572.6%

HT Home Win72.5%

HT/FT Home/Home69.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT Both Teams Score36.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.4%

HT Draw18.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win8.8%

HT Under 0.57.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners75.7%

Home Most Corners73.5%

Over 8.5 Corners68.6%

Under 11.5 Corners67.8%

Over 9.5 Corners56.3%

Under 10.5 Corners56.2%

Over 10.5 Corners43.8%

Under 9.5 Corners43.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners33.9%

Over 11.5 Corners32.2%

Under 8.5 Corners31.4%

Away Most Corners17.1%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards80.7%

Under 5.5 Cards73.1%

Over 3.5 Cards62.9%

Under 4.5 Cards56.4%

Over 4.5 Cards43.6%

Under 3.5 Cards37.1%

Over 5.5 Cards26.9%

Under 2.5 Cards19.3%

Over 0.5 Red Cards17.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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