USA · Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

Kick-off 03:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Portland Timbers 43.8% Draw 17.4% Minnesota United FC 38.8%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Portland Timbers: 10 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.2%

Exact-score model probability

Portland Timbers

L D W L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Minnesota United FC

D W L D D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portland Timbers win43.8%

Draw17.4%

Minnesota United FC win38.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.5%

Over 2.5 goals93.5%

Over 3.5 goals84.3%

Both teams to score90.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.4%

Both Halves Over 0.5

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.6%

Goal in Both Halves89.6%

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Home or Draw (1X)60.5%

Draw or Away (X2)55.5%

Draw No Bet - Home53.0%

Draw No Bet - Away47.0%

Home Win43.8%

Away Win38.8%

Draw16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals97.5%

Over 2.5 Goals92.9%

Over 3.5 Goals83.7%

4+ Goals83.7%

Over 4.5 Goals70.1%

Over 5.5 Goals53.9%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals46.1%

Under 4.5 Goals29.9%

2-4 Goals27.3%

3-4 Goals22.7%

Under 3.5 Goals16.3%

1-3 Goals15.3%

2-3 Goals13.7%

Exactly 3 Goals9.1%

Under 2.5 Goals7.1%

1-2 Goals6.2%

Exactly 2 Goals4.6%

Under 1.5 Goals2.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.6%

Away Team to Score93.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.7%

Home Clean Sheet5.5%

Home Win to Nil5.2%

Away Clean Sheet4.7%

Away Win to Nil4.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.6%

Away Over 0.593.8%

Home Over 1.580.2%

Away Over 1.577.8%

Home Over 2.558.3%

Home 3+ Goals58.3%

Away Over 2.554.8%

Away 3+ Goals54.8%

Away Exactly 223.1%

Home Exactly 221.9%

Away Exactly 115.9%

Home Exactly 114.3%

Away Exactly 05.5%

Home Exactly 04.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.9%

Home to win by 3+15.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.0%

Away to win by 3+13.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 212.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.0%

Away to win by 211.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.0%

Home & Over 2.541.8%

Home & BTTS38.6%

Away & Over 2.536.9%

Away & BTTS34.3%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Draw & Over 2.514.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.8%

Home & No BTTS5.2%

Away & No BTTS4.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.1%

HT Over 1.574.7%

HT Both Teams Score54.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Home Win38.7%

HT Away Win35.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home28.7%

HT Draw25.9%

HT Under 1.525.3%

HT/FT Away/Away24.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.5%

HT Under 0.56.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners68.2%

Over 8.5 Corners68.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners62.3%

Under 10.5 Corners56.7%

Over 9.5 Corners55.8%

Away Most Corners51.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners51.5%

Under 9.5 Corners44.2%

Over 10.5 Corners43.3%

Home Most Corners36.1%

Under 8.5 Corners31.9%

Over 11.5 Corners31.8%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards78.5%

Over 2.5 Cards76.2%

Under 4.5 Cards62.9%

Over 3.5 Cards56.7%

Under 3.5 Cards43.3%

Over 4.5 Cards37.1%

Under 2.5 Cards23.8%

Over 5.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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