USA · Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders

Full time · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

Portland Timbers 91.1% Draw 6.1% Seattle Sounders 2.8%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 60%

✓ Pick was correct (2:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 45%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Portland Timbers: 8 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

45%

Market does not fully agree

Portland Timbers

W D W L L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Seattle Sounders

L L L L L W

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 1

Portland Timbers 1wins ·0 draws ·Seattle Sounders 0wins

Portland Timbers 5-1 Seattle SoundersJul 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portland Timbers win91.1%

Draw6.1%

Seattle Sounders win2.8%

Over 1.5 goals97.3%

Over 2.5 goals90.3%

Over 3.5 goals78.2%

Both teams to score60.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Home or Away (12)

90.6%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.7%

Home or Draw (1X)93.0%

Home or Away (12)90.6%

Home Win87.7%

Both Halves Over 0.586.7%

Goal in Both Halves86.7%

Draw or Away (X2)8.3%

Draw5.4%

Draw No Bet - Away3.3%

Away Win2.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals86.7%

Over 3.5 Goals75.0%

4+ Goals75.0%

Over 4.5 Goals59.1%

Under 5.5 Goals58.1%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals41.9%

Under 4.5 Goals40.9%

2-4 Goals34.0%

3-4 Goals27.6%

Under 3.5 Goals25.0%

1-3 Goals20.5%

2-3 Goals18.1%

Under 2.5 Goals13.3%

Exactly 3 Goals11.7%

1-2 Goals8.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Exactly 2 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score58.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.5%

Home Clean Sheet37.8%

Home Win to Nil37.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.558.1%

Away Exactly 037.8%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Over 1.522.9%

Away Exactly 216.4%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.56.5%

Away 3+ Goals6.5%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)80.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home77.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)67.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away67.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home62.5%

Home to win by 3+62.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away50.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home45.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away33.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home28.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away18.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.0%

Home to win by 215.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 110.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.6%

Away to win by 20.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.3%

BTTS & Over 2.555.6%

Home & BTTS50.3%

Home & No BTTS37.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.531.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.4%

Home & Under 2.56.4%

Draw & BTTS4.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Over 2.52.3%

Away & BTTS2.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Home Win75.6%

HT/FT Home/Home73.8%

HT Over 1.570.1%

2nd Half More Goals50.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.9%

HT Both Teams Score29.7%

HT Draw17.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT Away Win6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Away/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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