England · Championship

Portsmouth vs Cardiff

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Portsmouth 18.0% Draw 15.8% Cardiff 66.2%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cardiff: 4 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.5%

Exact-score model probability

Portsmouth

L L W L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Cardiff

L D L D D W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portsmouth win18.0%

Draw15.8%

Cardiff win66.2%

Over 1.5 goals96.9%

Over 2.5 goals88.7%

Over 3.5 goals75.5%

Both teams to score81.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.9%

Goal in Both Halves84.9%

Home or Away (12)84.5%

Draw or Away (X2)81.0%

Draw No Bet - Away78.3%

Away Win66.2%

Home or Draw (1X)33.1%

Draw No Bet - Home21.7%

Home Win18.3%

Draw14.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals95.7%

Over 2.5 Goals88.1%

Over 3.5 Goals74.9%

4+ Goals74.9%

Under 5.5 Goals59.5%

Over 4.5 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 4.5 Goals42.0%

Over 5.5 Goals40.5%

2-4 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals30.1%

Under 3.5 Goals25.1%

1-3 Goals23.8%

2-3 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.1%

Under 2.5 Goals11.9%

1-2 Goals10.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.7%

Home Team to Score83.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.7%

Away Clean Sheet16.0%

Away Win to Nil15.4%

Home Clean Sheet3.6%

Home Win to Nil3.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 1.583.8%

Home Over 0.583.3%

Away Over 2.564.0%

Away 3+ Goals64.0%

Home Over 1.554.1%

Home Exactly 129.2%

Home Over 2.527.4%

Home 3+ Goals27.4%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 219.8%

Home Exactly 016.0%

Away Exactly 111.9%

Away Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home81.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away81.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home68.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)66.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)48.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away48.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)33.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home33.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)31.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away31.2%

Away to win by 3+31.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.8%

Away to win by 117.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away17.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.2%

Away to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.7%

Home to win by 19.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.2%

Home to win by 25.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.4%

Home to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.8%

Away & Over 2.561.1%

Away & BTTS50.8%

Home & Over 2.516.3%

Away & No BTTS15.4%

Home & BTTS15.3%

Draw & BTTS14.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Draw & Over 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.7%

Away & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Home & No BTTS3.0%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.2%

HT Over 1.567.4%

HT Away Win53.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT/FT Away/Away46.6%

HT Both Teams Score43.5%

HT Under 1.532.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.2%

HT Home Win20.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT/FT Home/Home10.7%

HT Under 0.59.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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