England · Championship

Portsmouth vs Derby

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Portsmouth 66.2% Draw 15.1% Derby 18.7%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Portsmouth: 4 points versus 1 across the last 5 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Portsmouth

L W L L D

Form 1-1-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 2

Derby

L D L L L

Form 0-1-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portsmouth win66.2%

Draw15.1%

Derby win18.7%

Over 1.5 goals97.8%

Over 2.5 goals91.3%

Over 3.5 goals80.1%

Both teams to score84.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.4%

Goal in Both Halves87.4%

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Home or Draw (1X)80.1%

Draw No Bet - Home77.8%

Home Win65.9%

Draw or Away (X2)33.0%

Draw No Bet - Away22.2%

Away Win18.8%

Draw14.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals96.4%

Over 2.5 Goals90.3%

Over 3.5 Goals79.2%

4+ Goals79.2%

Over 4.5 Goals63.8%

Under 5.5 Goals53.3%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals46.7%

Under 4.5 Goals36.2%

2-4 Goals32.5%

3-4 Goals26.5%

Under 3.5 Goals20.8%

1-3 Goals19.3%

2-3 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.1%

Under 2.5 Goals9.7%

1-2 Goals8.2%

Exactly 2 Goals6.0%

Under 1.5 Goals3.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.0%

Home Clean Sheet13.4%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.8%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 2.567.6%

Home 3+ Goals67.6%

Away Over 1.558.7%

Away Over 2.532.0%

Away 3+ Goals32.0%

Away Exactly 126.8%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 218.2%

Away Exactly 013.4%

Home Exactly 110.3%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)48.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home48.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away33.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.1%

Home to win by 3+32.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 19.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.3%

Away to win by 25.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.8%

Away to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.2%

Home & Over 2.562.0%

Home & BTTS52.9%

Away & Over 2.517.2%

Away & BTTS16.3%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Home & Under 2.53.8%

Draw & Under 2.53.2%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.7%

HT Over 1.571.1%

HT Home Win53.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.6%

HT Both Teams Score47.3%

HT/FT Home/Home46.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.9%

HT Draw25.1%

HT Away Win21.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Away/Away11.1%

HT Under 0.58.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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