England · Championship

Portsmouth vs Millwall

Full time · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Portsmouth 70.5% Draw 13.5% Millwall 16.0%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 85%

✓ Pick was correct (2:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Portsmouth: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Portsmouth

W W L D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Millwall

D L W D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portsmouth win70.5%

Draw13.5%

Millwall win16.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.4%

Over 2.5 goals93.3%

Over 3.5 goals83.9%

Both teams to score85.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.5%

Goal in Both Halves89.5%

Home or Away (12)85.4%

Home or Draw (1X)82.2%

Draw No Bet - Home81.3%

Home Win69.4%

Draw or Away (X2)28.7%

Draw No Bet - Away18.7%

Away Win15.9%

Draw12.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.3%

Over 2.5 Goals91.6%

Over 3.5 Goals82.3%

4+ Goals82.3%

Over 4.5 Goals68.6%

Over 5.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Under 5.5 Goals47.7%

Under 4.5 Goals31.4%

2-4 Goals27.7%

3-4 Goals23.0%

Under 3.5 Goals17.7%

1-3 Goals15.6%

2-3 Goals14.0%

Exactly 3 Goals9.3%

Under 2.5 Goals8.4%

1-2 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 1.5 Goals3.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score85.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.6%

Home Clean Sheet12.9%

Home Win to Nil12.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.2%

Away Over 0.585.2%

Home Over 2.572.8%

Home 3+ Goals72.8%

Away Over 1.559.0%

Away Over 2.532.4%

Away 3+ Goals32.4%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 126.2%

Home Exactly 215.4%

Away Exactly 012.9%

Home Exactly 17.9%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)44.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away44.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.8%

Home to win by 3+36.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 216.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.3%

Away to win by 18.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.1%

Away to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.3%

Home & Over 2.566.4%

Home & BTTS56.8%

Away & Over 2.514.9%

Away & BTTS14.2%

Home & No BTTS12.7%

Draw & BTTS12.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.0%

HT Over 1.574.5%

HT Home Win57.2%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT/FT Home/Home51.0%

HT Both Teams Score49.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.5%

HT Draw23.4%

HT Away Win19.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT/FT Away/Away9.4%

HT Under 0.57.0%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions