England · Championship

Portsmouth vs Swansea

Kick-off 20:45 · Tue, Nov 3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Portsmouth 74.0% Draw 14.1% Swansea 11.9%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Swansea: 11 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Portsmouth

D W W W L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

Swansea

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Portsmouth win74.0%

Draw14.1%

Swansea win11.9%

Over 1.5 goals95.9%

Over 2.5 goals86.0%

Over 3.5 goals71.0%

Both teams to score74.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

88.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.8%

Home or Away (12)86.2%

Draw No Bet - Home85.7%

Both Halves Over 0.582.5%

Goal in Both Halves82.5%

Home Win73.9%

Draw or Away (X2)25.3%

Draw No Bet - Away14.3%

Draw12.9%

Away Win12.3%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals85.3%

Over 3.5 Goals70.4%

4+ Goals70.4%

Under 5.5 Goals65.2%

Over 4.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 4.5 Goals47.7%

2-4 Goals42.3%

Over 5.5 Goals34.8%

3-4 Goals33.0%

Under 3.5 Goals29.6%

1-3 Goals28.0%

2-3 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals14.9%

Under 2.5 Goals14.7%

1-2 Goals13.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score75.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.9%

Home Clean Sheet23.5%

Home Win to Nil22.7%

Away Clean Sheet3.3%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.5%

Away Over 0.575.7%

Home Over 2.565.2%

Home 3+ Goals65.2%

Away Over 1.541.8%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Away Exactly 224.4%

Away Exactly 023.5%

Home Exactly 219.3%

Away Over 2.517.5%

Away 3+ Goals17.5%

Home Exactly 111.3%

Home Exactly 03.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.0%

Home to win by 3+38.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 218.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.4%

Away to win by 17.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 23.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.6%

Away to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.3%

Home & Over 2.566.6%

Home & BTTS51.2%

Home & No BTTS22.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.0%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

Away & Over 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Away & BTTS9.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.7%

HT Over 1.564.0%

HT Home Win58.7%

HT/FT Home/Home53.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Both Teams Score37.4%

HT Under 1.536.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Away Win15.7%

HT Under 0.511.3%

HT/FT Away/Away7.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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