Netherlands · Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard

Kick-off 19:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

PSV Eindhoven 86.0% Draw 8.4% Fortuna Sittard 3.9%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 58%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to PSV Eindhoven: 16 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

58%

Market does not fully agree

PSV Eindhoven

W W D W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 23:8 Scored/game 3.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Fortuna Sittard

L W L L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

PSV Eindhoven 4wins ·1 draws ·Fortuna Sittard 0wins

PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Fortuna SittardJan 17, 2026

PSV Eindhoven 5-2 Fortuna SittardOct 31, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Fortuna SittardMay 3, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Fortuna SittardSep 22, 2024

PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Fortuna SittardMay 12, 2024

🏥 PSV Eindhoven unavailable

J. Schouten · Knee Injury

🏥 Fortuna Sittard unavailable

I. Marquez · Inactive

E. Michut · Inactive

R. Bayram · Knee Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

PSV Eindhoven win86.0%

Draw8.4%

Fortuna Sittard win3.9%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals95.9%

Over 3.5 goals67.8%

Both teams to score87.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.6%

Both Halves Over 0.5

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.7%

Goal in Both Halves88.7%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Draw No Bet - Home85.5%

Home or Draw (1X)85.4%

Home Win73.9%

Draw or Away (X2)24.1%

Draw No Bet - Away14.5%

Away Win12.5%

Draw11.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals90.6%

Over 3.5 Goals80.6%

4+ Goals80.6%

Over 4.5 Goals66.2%

Under 5.5 Goals50.5%

Over 5.5 Goals49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Total Goals Even49.0%

Under 4.5 Goals33.8%

2-4 Goals29.6%

3-4 Goals24.4%

Under 3.5 Goals19.4%

1-3 Goals17.0%

2-3 Goals15.2%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals9.4%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score81.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.0%

Home Clean Sheet16.3%

Home Win to Nil16.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.9%

Away Win to Nil1.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.588.6%

Away Over 0.581.6%

Home Over 2.573.8%

Home 3+ Goals73.8%

Away Over 1.552.4%

Away Exactly 129.2%

Away Over 2.526.2%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away 3+ Goals26.2%

Away Exactly 016.3%

Home Exactly 214.8%

Home Exactly 17.5%

Home Exactly 01.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)58.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home58.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home41.4%

Home to win by 3+41.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)39.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away39.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 217.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 115.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 17.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.4%

Away to win by 23.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.8%

Home & Over 2.570.2%

Home & BTTS57.9%

Home & No BTTS16.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.8%

Away & Over 2.511.4%

Draw & BTTS11.2%

Away & BTTS10.9%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Home & Under 2.53.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.2%

Away & No BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.5%

HT Over 1.573.2%

HT Home Win60.7%

HT/FT Home/Home55.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Both Teams Score46.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.8%

HT Draw22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT Away Win16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT Under 0.57.5%

HT/FT Away/Away7.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

PSV Eindhoven

J. Schouten Knee Injury

Fortuna Sittard

I. Marquez Inactive

E. Michut Inactive

R. Bayram Knee Injury

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

PSV Eindhoven win50%

Draw50%

Fortuna Sittard win0%

AdviceDouble chance : PSV Eindhoven or draw

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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